Here's my op-ed in Politico on the possible dangers of a recall for Democrats. I actually wrote about this last August.
I have to say, I frequently use op-eds as thought experiments, and this is definitely one of them. The part about voters retroactively switching their votes to the winner in post election polls is certainly out there, but I've been fascinated by that strange fact for sometime.
That being said, while I see the negative consequences for the Democrats in using the recall, if I had to bet, I would say that Wisconsin will not be a deciding state in November if Romney wins. I would guess that Obama will carry Wisconsin, unless he gets trounced nationwide (in which case, he probably loses the state).
There could also be negative consequences for the Senate race, which may be a very close battle. Again, I wouldn't bet the recall would be decisive months later, but you just don't know.