Friday, July 30, 2021

California: Newsom Recall Round-up -- New Poll on the Recall itself, Warren, Summer Camp unmasking and Kitchen Sink recalls

Public Policy Institute of California Poll shows 86% of respondents like a recall law, but 70% consider the Gavin Newsom recall a waste of time. As with Wisconsin, many will still vote for removal. 60% would prefer a Malfeasance Standard recall law. 68% want a run-off to take care of the Plurality Conundrum. 

The Big Bang Theory Co-Creator Bill Purdy writes about his stint as a gubernatorial candidate in the 2003 recall (he got 474 votes).

Turnout, turnout, turnout

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) campaigns for Newsom

Newsom gets dinged for his kids being unmasked in summer camp

538 suggests that the Kitchen Sink campaign represents the greatest danger for Newsom (which may not be true -- I'll have to look into the numbers)

Wisconsin: Amery School Board recall fails

The recall effort against Amery Board of Education members Keith Anderson, Char Glenna, Dale Johnson and Chelsea Whitley has failed as petitioners did not hand in signatures. The issue was the board's support for masking in order to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

Petitioners needed 1087 signatures. 

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Michigan: Ann Arbor Councilman recall fails

The recall against Ann Arbor Councilman Jeff Hayner has failed due to a lack of signatures. Hayner was targeted with petitions over recent homophobic comments in an attack on journalists -- his comments were apparently an extended quote from Hunter Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Hayner has already been ousted from committees by the rest of the council.

Texas: Santa Fe Mayor facing recall effort over social media post

Petitions have been taken out against Santa Fe Mayor Jason Tabor over social media posts criticizing the investigation into a 2018 Santa Fe High School shooting that killed 10 people. Tabor said he was drunk in a casino when he posted the comments. The shooter is in a state mental health facility and the parents have been unable to receive information about the shooting, including an autopsy report because it is still under investigation. Tabor proposed a theory for the shooting and tagged one of the victims on Facebook (though the wrong one). 

Petitioners need 250 signatures to get on the ballot (note this is a small town in Galveston County, not the Santa Fe, New Mexico). They are looking for an Election Day recall. 

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Michigan: Recall efforts against Governor blows up in Republican faces

The longshot effort to recall Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has led her to historic fundraising achievements, with her raising $8.6 million, far more than any candidate has raised in an election year. The reason for this haul is the recall effort -- Whitmer can raise funds in unlimited amounts, rather than the $7,150 usual limit. Anyone paying attention to the California and Wisconsin recalls will be well familiar with this result. 

Notably, the recall against Whitmer would not have helped the Republicans anyway. Petitioners would need 1,062,647 signatures to get on the ballot, and thanks to changes in the law enacted by the GOP-led legislatures in 2012, a removal of Whitmer would simply lead to the elevation of the Lieutenant Governor.

Update: Here's a bill that is being proposed to get the recall law in-line with other campaign finance rules. 


Ohio: Newton Falls Councilwoman ousted in recall vote

Ending an extensive and a times bizarre saga, Newton Falls Councilwoman Sandra Breymaier (D) was ousted in a recall vote, 110-12. The council repeatedly had trouble setting the recall date, but were forced to set one. 

The Ohio Supreme Court previously stopped a June 1 recall election, holding that the city council did not have enough votes to legally schedule the election. It is now unclear whether the recall can go forward. 

That recall was scheduled, with a 2-1-1 vote with Breymaier abstaining.

In one of the previous failures, Breymaier's supporters looked to push the recall to the May 2022 election. This was rejected after Mayor Ken Kline (R) refused to let Breymaier vote and Breymaier's two council supporters left the meeting (and the law director was ejected). A different councilmember (who opposed the recall effort) resigned.

previous attempt to set the May 25 election date has been rejected by the County Board of Elections because three members walked out, depriving the council of a quorum. 

The recall is over complaint of unprofessionalism, name-calling against the mayor and a vote in favor of smart meters. Breymaier claiming that Kline is behind the recall effort. Breymaier notes that she is a swing vote on the Council. Kline denies he is behind the recall effort.  

Newton Falls has an interesting history with the recall.

Massachusetts: Fairhaven Selectman ousted in recall vote

Fairhaven Selectman Dan Freitas has been ousted in a recall, 1903-419, with Stasia Powers winning the replacement race, 809-785-660. Turnout was 19.5%, which was higher than the last election (19.2%). More people signed the petitions (2521 verified than voted). 

The recall effort over the search for a new Town Administrator.  Freitas says the recall is an effort from former town employees. Freitas also said that the Board of Health Chair Peter De Terra and Bice Chair Mike Ristuccia will also be targeted.

Notably, the last election had only 19.2% turnout (2290 voters).

California: Newest poll shows potential for motivated voters -- 43% of likely voters in favor of recall; 36% of registered voter

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times is showing how important turnout will be for Newsom in the recall. The registered voters number is once again steady as she goes, with 36% of voters in favor of removal -- the same total as in the April and January. Newsom is actually doing somewhat better there -- he has gone from 45% in his favor to 51%.

The problem is with likely voters. There it is 47% in favor of removal, with Newsom at 50%. Republicans make up only 25% of voters, but 33% of likely voters. 

Among the replacement candidates, Larry Elder is leading with 18% of the vote, followed by John Cox and Kevin Faulconer at 10%

Nebraska: Wahoo School Board President facing petitions

Petitions have been taken out against Wahoo Board of Education President Rob Brigham over demands to know about the board's positions on a mask mandate, critical race theory and health education standards. Brigham noted that none of the issues are actually up for debate by the board. Petitioners would need 934 signatures in 30 days. 

Monday, July 26, 2021

Arizona: Sun City West Recreation Board member facing recall

Sun City West Recreation Centers Board member Lou Mancuso will be facing an upcoming recall election. Sun City West is a 55+ community -- presumably you must be a member to vote on the recall. it sounds like the fight is over compliance issues (they seemed to be in violation of IRS rules) and paying for the centers. Mancuso apparently is also leading recall efforts against incoming President Sue Fitzsimons and Director Donna Maloney. Everything else is behind a paywall here, so we're limited in our knowledge of this one. 

Sunday, July 25, 2021

California: Newsom Recall Roundup -- Endorsement possibilities for GOP; Debate for GOP candidates

The Republican Party will be able to endorse a candidate for Governor, with a need for 60 percent of the vote from delegates at an August 10 meeting. There's a belief that this is designed to help former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, so there's complaints from other candidates. The party faced similar questions in 2003. 

Gubernatorial debate will take place at the Nixon Library on August 4th with 5 candidates (all Republicans) appearing and conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt moderating and featuring Trump's former NSC Advisor Robert O'Brien as a panelist; Unsurprisingly, Newsom won't be attending and neither will Jenner. 

Op-ed on running the recall as a test for future races for minority voters

North Dakota: NDGOP releases statements of support for State Representative facing petitions from other party members

The North Dakota GOP, and leaders of the legislature, have released a statements supporting North Dakota Representative Dwight Kiefert (R) who is facing petitions over his vote to remove Representative Luke Simons (R) over "his alleged inappropriate behavior, which included 'creepy comments to female legislators and staffers."

Petitioners need 1764 signatures in one year to get the recall on the ballot. It is led by District 24 GOP Treasurer Shane Anderson. The party censured Kiefert over his vote, which they claimed he was owed due process. In disagreement was the rest of the legislature, which voted by more than two-thirds to kick Simons out.

Apparently, Kiefert is expecting recalls against other House Republicans who voted to kick Simons out. There is an unofficial "ultra-conservative Bastiat Caucus" in the legislature, which included Simons and former state Representative and local party chairman Dan Johnston.  

California: San Ramon School Board member recall fails

The recall effort against San Ramon School Board President Susanna Ordway and board members Rachel Hurd and Ken Mintz failed, with petitioners not handing in any signatures.

The recall was over the continuation of remote learning in order to ward off the coronavirus pandemic. 

Ohio: Chesapeake Mayor recall rejected by Prosecuting Attorney

The recall effort against Chesapeake Mayor Kim Oldaker has been rejected by the Lawrence County Prosecuting Attorney, claiming that because Chesapeake is a non-chartered municipality it "is not authorized to have a recall election under Ohio law."

Previously, the board of elections said the recall was allowed. 

The recall effort was focused on complaints about neglect of duty, appropriations for funding and a filaure to file 2020's year-end report, though it is the fact that Oldaker led a push to fire the police chief may be the precipitating cause. Two clerks have resigned as have three council members. 

Petitioners are discussing whether to appeal. 

Thursday, July 22, 2021

California: Newsom Recall Round-up -- New Poll! Is the recall lacking "buzz" and some more court decisions

Emerson Poll shows recall doing slightly better, with 42% pro-recall, and 48% in favor of Newsom. Newsom is also underwater for the 2022 race. 

Is the recall lacking "buzz?" I'm cited in this piece about how the recall may be missing that certain something. 

More debates of how list people's names on the ballot -- Kevin Faulconer lost his case to list his title as "Retired San Diego Mayor" and Kevin Paffrath lost his to list his nickname as "Meet Kevin."

The Secretary of State has done its random drawing of how to list names on a ballot (and there is evidence that this matters a little bit, but I'm not looking up the study now). The order is: X, K, T, V, F, N, R, G, J, Y, Z, L, M, B, A, Q, H, D, I, E, P, C, W, S, O, U. Green Party candidate Daniel I. Kapelovitz is the bigger winner, as he goes first.

Real Estate players have donated $3.3 million to the Newsom defense effort, at least three times what they've given to the other side. 

Voters will start getting the ballot in mid-August.

Taxes are out and Caitlyn Jenner's income has dropped precipitously over the last five years -- though it sounds like she has hundreds of millions of dollars in investments.

California: Larry Elder back on the replacement ballot after judge tosses out tax reveal rule

A California Superior Court Judge has tossed out the rule that five years of taxes must be released for candidates running the replacement race for Governor, ruling that the provision is only applicable in a regular election, not in a recall. No idea if this will be appealed, but it comes too late for anyone who was scared off from running due to the requirement to release their taxes. However, it puts conservative talk radio host Larry Elder back on the ballot. Even if the decision is overturned, the judge ruled that Elder "substantial complied" with the law, so I assume that he is safely on the replacement ballot. 

California: Los Angeles City Councilmember (and former Senate President Pro Temp) facing recall effort

Petitions are being taken out against Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Leon over homeless issues. From social media posts, the lead petitioner appears to be from the right. Petitioners need about 20,500 signatures in 120 days.

de Leon is the former State Senate President Pro Temp (before he was term limited) and ran against Dianne Feinstein for the US Senate in 2018. 

de Leon is the third Council member to face a recall threat, as both Mike Bonin and Nithya Raman have been targeted. Homelessness has been cited in both of thoses cases, though Bonin has been targeted over other reasons before.

Colorado: Westminster Councilor survives recall vote

Westminster Councilor Jon Voelz has survived his recall vote, with 62% in his favor. The recall was over water bills and development issues and was launched by a group called the Westminster Water Warriors. Voelz is up for reelection in November. There was also a strong political component here, as Voelz's biggest donor was the Colorado Democratic Party.

Mayor Herb Atchison recently resigned before facing a recall effort, leading to an incredible mess in replacing the Mayoral position.  

The Westminster recall has taken a number of twists and turns. Petitioners got enough signatures for Atchison and Voelz to get to the ballot, but petitions against Councilors Anita Seitz and Kathryn Skulley failed to clear the bar. 

state judge ruled that a city clerk was wrong in tossing out signatures due to petitioners unstapling the cover sheets of the petitions. The judge ruled that the stapling issue was unintentional. The recall is over water bills. Petitioners needed 25% of turnout, which is 5009 signatures for Atchison and 6,098 for the three council members. Skulley's signatures missed by 61; Atchison by 282; Voelz by 635 and Seitz by 757. Atchison's effort got more than a 1000 over the limit and Voelz just got 9. Seitz missed by 35 signatures and Skulley by 23.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

North Dakota: Petitions taken out against State Representative

Petitions have been taken out North Dakota Representative Dwight Kiefert (R) over his vote to remove Representative Luke Simons (R) over "his alleged inappropriate behavior, which included 'creepy comments to female legislators and staffers."

Petitioners need 1764 signatures to get the recall on the ballot. It is led by District 24 GOP Treasurer Shane Anderson. The party censured Kiefert over his vote, which they claimed he was owed due process. In disagreement was the rest of the legislature, which voted by more than two-thirds to kick Simons out.

Apparently, Kiefert is expecting recalls against other House Republicans who voted to kick Simons out. There is an unofficial "ultra-conservative Bastiat Caucus" in the legislature, which included Simons and former state Representative and local party chairman Dan Johnston.  

Sunday, July 18, 2021

Ohio: Signatures handed in against Chesapeake Mayor

Signatures have been handed in against Chesapeake Mayor Kim Oldaker, with the board of elections saying it meets the requirement. The complaint mentions neglect of duty and a whole group of similar complaints, though Oldaker led a push to fire the police chief. Two clerks have resigned as have three council members. 

Bill Moore and Kyle Webb are running the recall, to be held of Election Day. 

Nebraska: Valparaiso Board Member kicked out

Valparaiso Board of Trustees member Mike Blazek was kicked out 175-86, with 61% turnout. The election was held on July 13 as an all-mail ballot. 

The recall was about complaints about alleged harassment and bullying as well as an alleged drainage project done on his property, allegedly by a village employee. The lead petitioner is the mother of the former library director, who was arrested for using library dollars for $1500 in Amazon purchases.

Petitioners handed in 133 signatures, they got 128 valids. They needed about 104 signatures (45% of the vote for the top performer for the position in the last election).

California: Update: 46 candidates! -- 41 candidates on the replacement ballot for gubernatorial recall -- why the drop off in expected candidates?

Update: The list is now 46. with Larry Elder added back on by a judge.

A surprisingly small 41 candidates have qualified for the replacement race -- though one of the most prominent names, Conservative talk show host Larry Elder -- is not on there. Elder has stated that he expects to be on, so it's not clear why he was left off (from his statements, he is suggesting some paperwork issues).

21 of the candidates are Republicans and eight are Democrats, nine independents, one libertarian and two Green Party members, though from what I see, none of the Democrats are an elected official or well known as one (YouTube real estate/investor Kevin Paffarth is seen as the biggest name).  

What explains the drop from the 135 candidates in 2003? Many (including me) were expecting at least as many candidates as in 2003. Here's four possible reasons:

1) A new law requiring candidates to reveal five years of taxes, which probably scares off enough longshots.

2) Democrats have done a great job scaring off any real Democratic contender. The lesson (for both the party and any candidate) of Cruz Bustamante has been learned.

3) The recall simply hasn't caught fire. The excitement is not there which clearly dampens the desire of people to get in the race. We've already seen a number of candidates test the waters and then drop out. 

4) Newsom is seen as the heavy favorite -- in 2003, there may have been some chance for a candidate to win or get press. But if Newsom has this in a walk, there's not going to the same attention.

5) California and the political atmosphere is more political than ever before. The result is that running in the recall may be seen as a partisan move (or a betrayal of your team). 

Who does this help? It's not clear at all. A boring underplayed recall effort may actually be a boon for Republicans and the pro-recall forces. Newsom needs to get people to the ballot (or mailbox as the case may be). The pro-recall voters are already fired up and ready to get out there. Can Newsom wake up his voters?

Taiwan: Recall against legislator scheduled for October 23

The recall election against Taiwan Legislator Chen Po-Wei (pro-independence Taiwan Statebuilding Party) is scheduled for October 23 -- a delay from August 28 due to the Covid pandemic.

Petitioners handed in 3744 valid signatures and needed 2912. Petitioners now need to get 29,113 signatures in 60 days. A vote would require 25% turnout (72,281) to succeed (as well as actually winning that vote). 

Chen is the first member of his party to win a seat, beating a local dynasty in 2020. 

Alaska: Supreme Court issues written ruling greenlighting gubernatorial recall -- may effectively push state to Political Recall rules

More than a year after ruling that the recall of Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) can proceed, the Alaska Supreme Court has finally issued its written ruling in the recall effort against  and, though the recall effort may not get anywhere, it is quite an important one for Alaska -- it could open up the recall to much wider use in the state.

Alaska has had a malfeasance or judicial recall (not to be confused with a recall of a judge) standard, which requires that the petitioner show a violation of a law, lack of fitness or some manifest incompetence and requires an agency or the courts to hold that a specific, statutorily delineated bad act was performed by the elected official. 

This decision may have ended that standard and effectively pushed Alaska into the ranks of the "Political Recall" states. Alaska has been moving in this direction since the 1980s, but this could open up the state to more recall attempts. 

The decision doesn't spell this out, but both the partial dissent and the governor's statement do. Dunleavy's statement:

"The Alaska Supreme Court today issued an opinion that creates a standardless recall process, subjecting elected officials at every level, and across the political spectrum, to baseless, expensive, and distracting recall elections by their political opponents."

From Judge Stowers partial dissent: 

"I urge every legislator to carefully consider the court's opinion today. The opinion opens the door to standardless recall petitions...The greatly expanded access to recall created by the court's decision today can and will be used not to actually seek to recall an elected official for cause, but instead to seek to recall an elected official because of disagreements over policy. And in Alaska, disagreement over policy or political philosophy is not a proper subject for recall.  

The ruling walks through Alaska's adoption of the recall law. The Constitution's delegates left it up to the legislature to draft laws setting up the recall provision. The legislators codified the law in 1960 and in 1972 prescribed the grounds and procedures for recall of local officials looking at the big court decision in 1984 that set Alaska on a "middle ground."  

Alaska's law is different than the traditional malfeasance standard. The 1984 Alaska Supreme Court ruling in Meiners v. Bering Strait School District, held that the recall law “should be liberally construed so that the people are permitted to vote and express their will” - at least on the local level. In 2017, a Superior Court judge used this decision to allow a recall to move forward against three Homer City Council members over their support for protesters against the Dakota pipeline. This liberal construction of the recall has led to at least 27 recalls making the ballot since 2011.

On the state level, we have not seen the more liberal construction standard used. In recent years, recalls have been rejected against a governor, two state senators and one assembly representative due to a failure to state a valid cause of action. This liberal construction decision could change that. 

Whether the recall will get on the ballot is not clear -- petitioners seem to have hit a lull in signature collection (81% of the 71,252 needed -- though that is unverified). Alaska has no deadline on recall petitions once they are issued, so they can keep collecting until the term is practically up. 

Additionally, Dunleavy would automatically be replaced by a Republican, his Lieutenant Governor Kevin Meyer. This would clearly mitigate (though of course not end) the push to claim that the recall is purely partisan.

The recall is over major spending cuts (some of which have since been reversed), delays in appointing judges misusing state funds and mistakenly vetoing funds.

This is the first time in US history that a recall has been allowed against a Governor in a malfeasance standard state.

Friday, July 16, 2021

California: Replacement Race candidates to be announced tomorrow

5:00 today was the moment that the paper work had to be handed in for any candidate looking to run in the recall. We will hear tomorrow who is running.

Richard Grenell is not running. Caitlyn Jenner is running... to Australia to film for a reality show (Celebrity Big Brother).

California: Fresno Unified Trustees facing recall threats over mascot decision

Fresno School Board members, Valerie Davis, Keshia Thomas, Claudia Cazares, Elizabeth Jonassan Rosas, Veva Islas, and Carol Mills are facing recall threats over their vote to change the schools Native American warrior mascot after judges have thrice rejected court challenges. The vote was 6-1 and the only no vote was by Trustee Terry Slatic, who previously faced a recall effort.  

Wisconsin: Dodge County Supervisor bounced in recall vote

Dodge County Supervisor Thomas J. Schaefer was ousted on July 13, with the lead petitioner, Dan Siegmann, defeating him 538-159.

The petitioners seem to be focused on transparency in government, though the Facebook page "Free in Dodge" (where Siegmann posts sometimes) seems to have numerous complaints about vaccines and Siegmann was a protestor against the shutdown rules put in place to fight the coronavirus pandemic. It's not clear that the coronavirus was the impetus for the recall.

North Carolina: Raleigh Mayor targeted in recall effort

Raleigh Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin is facing petitions after the council voted to ask the state to move the elections from October 2021 to November 2022 as well. The council is also asking for a permanent move to even year elections and ending run-offs and moving to the first past the post system. The system was approved, and most municipalities in the state were pushed to the March primary.

The effort originally targeted the eight city councilmembers as well, but now they are just looking at Baldwin.

Petitioners are looking to gather 14,000 signatures. Petitioners include two former city council members who lost in 2019.

New Mexico: Signature gathering starts against Otero County Commissioner

Signatures gathering has started in the recall effort against Otero County Commissioner Couy Griffin. Griffin, the founder of Cowboys for Trump, was arrested for rioting at the US Capitol on January 6 and a State Court Judge greenlit the recall effort.

In addition to his participation in the seditious riot, Griffin has been accused of calling for the murder of the Governors of Virginia and Michigan, and called for violence at President Joe Biden's inauguration. 

Petitioners would need 1574 signatures in 90 days. 

Virginia: Portsmouth Council looking to increase signatures needed for recall effort

Portsmouth officials are looking to change the law to make it harder to kick out officials, including raising the amount of signatures needed for a recall. 

The big change is not with a recall, but instead a provision in the city charter that can result in an official losing their seat if they give "orders to an employee of the city manager or directing the city manager to appoint, hire or fire employees." Currently, the provision results in a misdemeanor and forcing them to lose their seat. The change would put it as a civil penalty. Councilwoman Lisa Lucas-Burke faced charges that were tossed out under this provision over comments about the former Police Chief.

Presumably, this also has something to do with the Senate President Pro Temp Louise Lucas (D) recall attempt.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

California: New names running for Governor

Conservative Radio Host Larry Elder has jumped into the replacement race. The list stands at 26 Republicans, 16 Democrats, 11 no part preference, 3 Greens and 1 American Independent Party. 

Colorado: Avon City Council votes to not appeal judges ruling in recall

Avon's City Council has switched positions and will not be appealing a judge's ruling that the recall against Mayor Sarah Smith Hymes and Tamra Underwood has met the signature requirements and will take place by Election Day. The court found that the undercount is now counted for purposes of the recall. Neither Hymes nor Underwood participated in the vote. 

Here's some earlier detailed coverage of the fight. I'm not sure what happened to the recall of Councilmembers Amy Phillips.

Monday, July 12, 2021

California: Judge rules that Newsom will NOT receive party affiliation next to name on the ballot

Governor Gavin Newsom has lost his bid to have his party designation next to his name on the recall ballot, after Superior Court Judge James Arguelles (who granted the recall 120 extra days) ruled that Newsom did not hit the deadline to list the party affiliation. Newsom asked that the judge rule the failure to file the designation as a "good faith error" during Newsom's official response on February 28, 2020, but this was rejected due to the clear language of the statute. This was due to a new law that was approved and signed into law in October 2019. Prior to that, the recall had no party affiliation listed. 

No word on whether Newsom will appeal the ruling.

California: Newsom Recall Round-up: Carey Out, Jenner claims to run in 2022; Grenell filing FOIA at voter rolls

Newsom's case to put a Democratic identification on the ballot is heading for a decision.

Mary Carey is not running in the recall after all, citing an inability to release her tax returns

In news not likely to upset Newson, Caitlyn Jenner said she will run in 2022 if Newsom survives the recall.

Jenner held her first press conference, apparently not saying much. Jenner was also heckled at Conservative Political Action Conference

Ric Grenell, the very controversial former Acting Director of National Intelligence, claims that he will file Freedom of Information requests to look at voter rolls. Grenell also stated that Newsom's call to conserve water is "ridiculous" because "We live on the ocean. The last thing that Californians should be worried about is water."

Another detailed look at the recall

Washington: Seattle City Council member signs petition seeking own recall in order to get recall scheduled

Big move in the recall effort against Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant (the first socialist elected to Seattle's council in 100 years), as Sawant signed the petition herself. Sawant wants to get the recall on the ballot to coincide with a regular election day, which (in this theory) will help push Savants supporters to vote. 

Petitioners would need 10,739 signatures by October 19 to get on the ballot. August 1st seems to be needed to get the Election Day recall. 

Washington is also a "malfeasance standard/judicial recall state" though the State Supreme Court upheld a lower court judge ruling approving the recall effort. Two of the six charges were dismissed sat the lower level. Sawant would be the first councilmember to face a recall in Seattle's history (though two Mayors were kicked out).

The recall effort was over a kitchen sink of complaints, including revealing the mayor's home address, giving decision-making authority to Socialist Alternative (which has been a complaint against her before, though it was dismissed by the Ethics and Election Commission), promoting a ballot initiative, letting protesters in City Hall after hours and helping to create a criminal environment.

Update: The petitioners are the only ones that can turn in the signatures, so I'm not sure how this will work.

Sunday, July 11, 2021

Alaska: Petitioners meeting to decide next steps in Gubernatorial recall effort

The numbers against Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) has been stuck for months on the website. Petitioners are gathering to decide what to do next. 

Louisiana: Ascension Blues as six Parish Councilmembers face recall threats

Six Ascension Parish Council members, including President Clint Cointment (I'm waiting for the other names), are facing petition threats. The issue seems to be a proposed 12-month moratorium on new construction, which the council voted to reduce to 9 months. The complaint is that there is flooding caused by excess building.  Petitioners need about 3500 signatures for each council member. 

California: Carlsbad Councilwoman resigns during recall effort, claiming will go to college outside of county

In a surprise move, Carlsbad Councilwoman Cori Schumacher (D) has resigned in the face of a recall campaign, claiming she is moving outside of San Diego County to go to college. 

The recall effort was led by Reform California founder Carl DeMaio (who has led numerous conservative recall efforts) over a whole kitchen sink of complaints, including behavior, political donations, a labor agreement and her position in favor of enforcement policies to fight the coronavirus pandemic. Schumacher has criticized Carlsbad Mayor Matt Hall (R) who she accuses of promoting personal attacks.

Petitioners needed about 3562 signatures by September 8 to get on the ballot. 

Friday, July 9, 2021

California: Newsom Recall Round Up -- Is Newsom causing a bump in recalls throughout the state?

The New York Times looks at the question of whether the Newsom recall is responsible for a bump in recalls statewide. I'm quoted in the piece arguing that the connection is not there and that California is having a fairly regular recall year. The LA and SF District Attorneys recall, as well as the SF School Board, all are about national issues, and are to some degree intraparty, that there is no reason to believe that it is caused by the Newsom effort.

Here's another NYT piece on the September 14 date, citing my previous writing claiming that a later recall would help Newsom. 

And an Op-ed by Ezra Klein in the NYT talking about the vetocracy and the downside of the recall. Its very much a "Nuts and Gum, Together at Last!" piece, which seems to have little to do with the recall.

Here's Republican Strategist Jason Cabel Roe discussing the replacement field.

California: Newsom fundraising vastly outpacing pro-recall efforts

The LA Times has a look at the big donors for the recall and anti-recall efforts, with Newsom and the anti-recallers raising $32.5 million as opposed to the $16.8 million for the recall. It is not clear from the piece how much has already been spent from the recall backers in order to get the recall on the ballot. Also, much of the money may be for the replacement candidates, who won't be running the same type of race against Newsom. John Cox, who Newsom obliterated in 2018, reports $7.1 Million self-funded, so not sure how that counts here. 

Colorado: Money flowing into the Westminster city council recall

Money has started flowing in for the recall campaign of Westminster City Councilmember Jon Voelz. Democrats have started putting thousands of dollars into the defense of Voelz, while the recall supporters, the Water Warriors, have spent over $21K in their attorney, former Secretary of State Scott Gensler. 

The recall has been long running battle, with the resignation of Mayor Herb Atchison. Atchison resigned after signatures were verified in a recall effort. 

Oregon: State Senate Minority Leader Recall Effort fails to turn in signatures

No signatures have been handed in against Oregon Senate Minority Leader Fred Girod (R) by the Tuesday deadline. Girod faced a recall from right wingers after he and five other Republican Senators attended a Senate session with a vote to ban firearms in state buildings. The Republicans all objected to the proposal but their presences ensured the 20 member quorum needed to vote. There is still a recall effort against Oregon State Senator Lynn Findley (R)

Petitioners needed 8922 signatures. 

Ohio: Newton Falls Council Recall finally scheduled for July 27

The long fight over the Newton Falls City Councilwoman Sandra Breymaier recall has finally reached the end stage, as an election was set for July 27 by a 3-1 vote. Breymaier did not attend the meeting (the vote was 3-1). 

Here's the full look back on what's happening. 

Colorado: Signatures handed in against Grand Lake Mayor

Grand Lake is holding a hearing on whether petitions that have been handed in against Mayor Steve Kudron should enable a recall to move forward. Petitioners handed in 45 signatures, with 44 certified. They needed 25. The issue seems to be a purchase of property by the town, with complaints of open meeting law violations. The leaders of the effort are a the spouses of a former Trustee and County Assessor. 

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

California: San Francisco D.A. recalls proceeding, though petitioner claims a good number of signatures will be tossed out

The two recall efforts against San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin are in different stages of the signature collection phase. The first one, led by former Republican Mayoral candidate Richie Greenberg, claims to have about 42,000 signatures but Greenberg said a good number of them will fail. This effort has until August 11.  

The second recall, led by the San Francisco Association of Realtors Executive Director Mary Jung and Andrea Shorter, a political consultant, claims they have about 25,000 signatures, with an October 25 deadline.

Petitioners need 51,325 valids. 

California: Poll says 60% support ouster in SF School Board attempt

A new poll out from EMC Research notes that there is strong support for a recall of three members of the San Francisco Board, President Gabriela Lopez, Vice President Alison Collins and member Faauuga Moliga, with over 60% in favor of removal. The recall is over the School Board is over a few issues, including a push to plan for the reopening of the schools, changing admissions for a high school and an extremely controversial decision to change the names of public schools for political reasons and using some odd history, including removing the name of Abraham Lincoln. Mayor London Breed has been particularly critical of the board, and the City Attorney Dennis Herrera has sued to compel reopening. 

Petitioners are claiming that they have over 26,000 signatures. San Francisco follows state law, which would require 10% of registered voters in the city. so that should be about 51,325 valid signatures for each board member.

Other board members Jenny Lam, Mark Sanchez and Kevine Boggess and Matt Alexander, will not be able to face a recall until June. 

California has been happy to kick out school board members over the last decade -- 25 have been removed in a recall vote, 7 have resigned, one has been kicked out by the board and only 6 survived a recall vote.

California: Assemblyman Kevin Kiley joins recall race

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R) from Placer County, who has published a book called "RECALL NEWSOM: The Case Against America's Most Corrupt Governor" is running in the replacement race. He is apparently the fifth Kevin in the race and is a fierce critical of Newsom.

Washington: Petitioners claim to have 9000 signatures in Seattle City Council member

Petitioners claim they have over 9000 signatures for the recall of Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant (the first socialist elected to Seattle's council in 100 years). Petitioners would need 10,739 signatures by October 19 to get on the ballot. They are hoping for August 1 so they can get the November election date.

Washington is also a "malfeasance standard/judicial recall state" though the State Supreme Court upheld a lower court judge ruling approving the recall effort. Two of the six charges were dismissed sat the lower level. Sawant would be the first councilmember to face a recall in Seattle's history (though two Mayors were kicked out).

The recall effort was over a kitchen sink of complaints, including revealing the mayor's home address, giving decision-making authority to Socialist Alternative (which has been a complaint against her before, though it was dismissed by the Ethics and Election Commission), promoting a ballot initiative, letting protesters in City Hall after hours and helping to create a criminal environment.

Oregon: Ontario City Councilor kicked out in overwhelming recall vote

Big vote against Ontario City Councilmember Freddy Rodriguez, who lost 1789-216, with only 28% turnout. Petitioners needed 493 valid signatures to get on the ballot. Rodriguez has had restraining orders for domestic violence filed against him and was the target of recall efforts before. In Oregon, there is no replacement race, so there will be an appointment. 

California: LA Times looks back at the Dianne Feinstein recall

Here's the LA Times' Mark Barabak on the 1983 Dianne Feinstein recall, which is the best case scenario for Newsom (well, that an North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier).

California: PPIC Poll suggests that pro-Recall voters more engaged

PPIC, which has found that the recall effort is lagging with only 40% of the vote, notes that there is a 15% gap in how closely people are following the recall.  People in favor of removal are following the recall more closely 27% very, 46% fairly) than those who want to keep Newsom (17% very, 41% fairly). 

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Colorado: New recall effort launched against Secretary of State

A new recall effort has been started against Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) by the same people who are trying to put a recall against Governor Jared Polis (D) on the ballot. The recall is focused on the false complaints about the November election, focused on a June 17 announcement by Griswold of emergency rules for voting systems, which is seen as a way to stop the third-party "audits" plaguing Arizona. There is also complaints about the Dominion Voting Systems. 

The Griswold recall is handled by the Auditor's Office (because of the natural conflict of interest for the Secretary of State's Office).  Petitioners would need 623,159 signatures for Griswold (and 631,266 for Polis). 

Monday, July 5, 2021

California: Lompoc Cannabis taxing formula will be on the recall ballot

Lompoc voters will get to decide on a new taxing formula for cannabis operations on September 14, the same day as the recall vote. The cost savings will be substantial -- going from $250,000 to $65,000.

Missouri: Nixa Mayor recall scheduled for November 2

The recall election of Mayor Brian Steele has been scheduled for November 2, with the recall taking place over his support for the city's mask mandate to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Petitioners handed in 97 signatures, with 73 valid. They needed 67.  The recall cost is estimated to be $10,000-$15,000.

Friday, July 2, 2021

California: Newsom Recall Date Set for September 14

The date is now set, as California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis set the Governor Gavin Newsom recall for September 14. Apparently, the "early recall" proponents won out. I wonder if there could be lawsuits against the quicker process, though Kounalakis did choose a relatively longer time frame (she had 60-80 days, and this is 75 days from July 1).

This is one week after Labor Day, which at least one Political Scientist feels is likely to help boost turnout for Newsom. The week before would have been Rosh Hashanah, so that may also have played a part in the calculations (and the Tuesday dates for the two weeks afterwards are also Jewish holidays which provide significant limitations on the ability of Orthodox Jews to vote, which may have played a role in choosing the 14th).

Thursday, July 1, 2021

California: 80 Candidates in the recall race; Larry Ellison gives max to Jenner

We're up to 80 candidates in the recall, including John Pierce, Kenosha shooter Kyle Rittenhouse's former attorney, and former San Francisco Mayoral Write-in candidate Marc Roth. 

Conservative talk show host (and regular Fox News talking head) Larry Elder is considering running in the recall.

And Oracle's Larry Ellison (who prominently moved to Hawaii from California last year), has given the max to Caitlyn Jenner. Jenner has 

Oregon: More on the Portland Mayor recall attempt

Another piece on the recall threat against Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler