Monday, August 15, 2022

California: Los Angeles District Attorney recall fails, with 28% signature rejection rate

The recall effort against Los Angeles District Attorney has failed, with 28% of the signatures being tossed out -- 195,783 of the 715,833 signatures handed in. So they missed by 46,807 (520,050 valids. They needed 566,857.

As noted before, the signature rejection rate was within the range of past California recalls, though on the higher end (I won't repeat all the details -- here's the link with the discussion).

What is perhaps noteworthy is the sheer number of duplicates here -- 43,593, 6% of total signatures. All four of the San Francisco recalls saw negligible duplication rates. This may point to issues the gatherers, as there was a lawsuit by the signature gathering company against the recall committee. 

The pro-recall forces sent a note complaining about the standard for the recall and a "shockingly large" rejection rate, though they used a very odd comparison (ballots mailed out last year). As we can see below, the actual mismatched signatures were a small part of this. The largest tranche of rejected signatures, as in SF was not registered voters.

The rejections were as follows:

Not Registered -- 88,464

Duplications -- 43,593

Different Address -- 32,187

Mismatch signature -- 9,490

Canceled -- 7,344

Out of County Address -- 5,374

Other -- 9,331

I'm not sure what the "canceled" category is, though I wonder if it could be a signature strike counter petition.

It is not clear if there will be a lawsuit or what that lawsuit could be based on. The reasons for rejection really limit the options. 

The question of why the recall failed is already being discussed. The sheer number of signatures needed (more than against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in 2012 and nearly 10X that needed in San Francisco) should be at the top of the list. 

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