June 5 is set to be a big day, thanks to two very notable recalls taking place in California.
- State Senator Josh Newman (D) is facing a legislative recall, the first in the state in almost a decade and the first anywhere in the country since 2013.
- Santa Clara Judge Aaron Persky is facing a recall vote. Persky is the first full-time judge anywhere
in the country since 1982. If he is removed, he will be the first to be kicked out by recall since 1977. In California, no judge has faced a recall since the
days of Herbert Hoover in 1932.
Let’s look at Newman in this post and Persky in the next.
Newman will be the 39th state legislator to face a recall vote since 1913. He is the
ninth California legislator on that list and the first since
then-state Senator Jeff Denham in 2008 (in a similar situation).
The last state legislative recalls in the country took place in
Colorado in 2013, where two Democratic state Senators, Senate President John Morse and Angela Giron, were removed over their support for gun control legislation.
The Newman recall is ostensibly over his vote in favor of a gas tax, but there is a very clear political/legislative strategy focus to the recall, of a type that we’ve seen
many times in the past. Newman’s district is one of the closest contested ones in the state, and Newman won office by less than 2500 votes.
If Newman is ousted and replaced by a Republican, the Republicans will then prevent the Democrats from retaining a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
Political Recalls:
Whatever the issues surrounding the gas tax, the Newman recall appears to have been launched over an attempt to deprive the Democrats of a two-third majority in both houses.
In
the past, there have been multiple attempts to use the recall to
“flip the chamber” – including the historic California recall battles of 1995. In 2008, the Democratic leadership tried to recall Senator Denham in order to gain the 2/3rds majority – they failed, as Denham easily won the office and then went on to win a Congressional seat.
There were also attempts to recall
three state Senators in Nevada this year (two Democrats, one-Independent). One failed to get enough signatures, the others failed following the handing in of signatures.
The Recall Explosion:
Recalls generally result in removal – from 2011-2017, close to 60% of recalls that get to the ballot result in the official losing the vote (plus many others result in resignation before a vote. State legislative recalls are much closer
to 50-50, the success breakdown is 20-18 in favor of removals -- but Wisconsin
really skews the numbers. In 2012-2013, 13 legislators faced recalls and only
three were removed (
I count this resignation in the survived a recall column,
as the Republicans easily retained the seat).
The vast majority of legislative recalls have taken place in recent years -- only
five took place before 1971, and 21 will have taken place since 2003 (plus two
of the four gubernatorial -- if we count Arizona's Evan Meacham in 1988--
recalls to get to the ballot took place in that time).
What explains the explosion? Many cite increased partisanship. I am skeptical
of that explanation, and have argued that technological innovations (and
possibly a drop in voter turnout and registration) are really responsible for
the lion's share of the growth.
Other States:
18 states have the recall for state level officials (plus Illinois has it just
for governors and Virginia has something called a recall trial). Of those 18
states, 9 have held state-level office recalls. There is a very significant
breakdown between those states. 11 of the states have a political recall (an
official can be recalled for any reason); 7 have a judicial recall or
malfeasance standard (the official must have violated one of a specified list
of causes, such as being indicted).
Of the nine states that have held state level recalls, eight of them have been
political recall states (California, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, Arizona,
Idaho, North Dakota, Colorado). The only recall on the state level in a
malfeasance standard state was in Washington in 1981 (the malfeasance was
switching parties -- the official survived).
Give me Two Steps:
California’s recall is what I call a two-step/same-day recall vote -- voters
cast one ballot which has two parts: step one is the question (not using the
literal language) of "Should this official be recalled?" and step two
is "Who should be named as a replacement?" The only state that has
this exact process is Colorado.
There are six candidates running the replacement race. Newman is not allowed to run to replace himself.
In Colorado in 2013, the hybrid process was received significant attention for two reasons. One is the
question of whether the recall itself (the first vote) is actually an election
or an issue campaign. There is a difference in how money may be spent by
parties if it is an issue campaign.
The second point, which
two courts have ruled on was the question of whether you could be barred from
voting in the replacement race if you don’t vote on the recall question. This
same question came up in California in 2003. The Ninth Circuit ruled this
provision unconstitutional (under the 1st and 14th Amendments). In a 5-2 decision, the Colorado Supreme Court apparently
followed the same logic.
Party Line -- Is one party more likely to use recalls?
I constantly get asked about the party breakdowns of the recall. Most of the
recalls are on the local level, where the position is elected on a nonpartisan
basis. When there is a partisan position, the party label is frequently a
misleading method to judge recall use, as many are not based on D v. R partisan
motivations. Sometimes Republicans recall Republicans, and Democrats recall
Democrats.
However, you would see both parties are not shy about using recalls (for
example of the 14 state legislative recalls from 1981-2008, most were launched
against Democrats, and ethics played very little role in those recalls).
Democrats have launched the majority of the recalls in 2012-13 on the state
level, which makes sense as the lost power in 2010.
Republicans or their backers have not been shy about using the recall for partisan
gain (for example, Michigan, 1983, California, 1994, 1995 and 2003, Colorado in
2013). Same thing with Democrats (Wisconsin in 2011-12, 2008 California). So,
which party is most likely to launch a recall? Simple -- the one that is not in
office.
Blowouts v. Barnburners:
I wouldn't expect a blowout, but throughout history recalls have tended that
way. Here's a look at some of the history of
blowouts
and some
close races.
Man is opposed to fair play, he wants it all, and he wants it his way: The inevitable post-recall reform act
We have heard, and will continue to hear complaints about the unfair use of the
recall. But these complaints can generally be dismissed out of hand. Why? There
have been a number of principled opponents of the recall.
Alexander Hamilton and William Howard
Taft lead the pack in US history
with their great dislike for the recall. Among modern commentators, the only
one that I can think of is George Will. But they are few and far between.
Similarly, after major recalls, the first action by the recall opponents is to
propose a reform to the law. Wisconsin
has
tried to do
it. In 2011, Arizona tried to add a
recall primary and
other changes, and
put a
law on the
books mandating strict construction of the law.
Michigan
actually changed its law following the successful Paul
Scott recall in 2011 and has
probably cut
down on the amount of recalls in the state (as well as removed
the replacement race for Governor).
Others have done same after
a recall loss.
In this case, the
Democrats made these changes before the recall.
They passed a law that allowed
petition-signers to remove their name from petitions (a law that had an
immediate impact in another race) as well as change the contribution limits so
that Newman’s colleagues in the state Senate could help him in the race. Both
of these provisions have been tied up in the courts, though it has allowed the
recall of Newman to be delayed until primary day (which my eventually to be
published statistics suggests may not matter). The law also requires the Board
of Elections to estimate the costs of the recall.
These changes rarely involve going to the voters (I know of one example on the
local level of such a change being passed by voters). Polls keep showing
complaints about the recall, but they are not borne out by the results. In
Wisconsin, one poll showed 70% of the voters
opposed to the recall (60% wanted it used for corruption/malfeasance only; 10%
thought it should never be used). Yet, despite that about 47% of the voters
cast a ballot to toss Walker out.
We had a similar
poll in Colorado, where almost 60% of voters opposed the use of the
recall against Morse and Giron. The breakdown of the polls were very
illuminating -- Republicans were much more in favor (62% for Morse; 47% for
anyone for political reasons) of the recall than Democrats. The reality is that
support or opposition to the recall depends heavily on whether it is an
official from your favored party facing the voters.
Most of the people who complain about the recall are just really complaining about the recall being used against their side. In the past, Scott Walker signed petitions
seeking policy-focused recalls. Bill Clinton was certainly not supporting the Gray Davis recall.
You want to know if somebody has a principled position on the recall? Look back
at their positions on both the Gray Davis and Scott Walker ones. See if there
is any consistency. What you will likely find is that the person just didn't
want their candidate to lose, and they're hoping you either agree or just don't
look into it.
Recall Survivors: Risin' up, straight to the top?
Surviving a recall can boost a career. Scott Walker survived and is now a major
national figure, even with an early flame-out in his presidential attempt in 2016.
Dianne Feinstein won the San Francisco Mayoral recall against her in 1983. By
1984 she was being *talked about for the VP and was the US Senator by 1992. Jeff
Denham is now in Congress. Also, for what it's worth, filmmaker Michael Moore
survived a recall before his career took off.
How a Resurrection Really Feels
Is a recall loss the end of a career? Not always. The most obvious example
is North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier was the first Governor to be
recalled back in 1921. He was elected to the first of the three US Senate terms
18 months later. Seattle Mayor Hiram Gill lost a recall in 1914 and was back in
office the following term.
No future, no future for you?
Another big question that I'm constantly asked: Will we see a cycle of recall
revenge? I remember similar questions after Gray Davis was recalled, and in
fact this has been a constant warning cry of recall opponents since the recall
was first adopted over a century ago. Recalls are clearly a part of political
life, but as can be seen by the nearly five year hiatus from state legislature,
they can wax and wane. The Recall is truly the
Bermuda Triangle of politics.