California: Updates on California Gubernatorial Recall

Chair of Virgin Galactic and billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, who has announced a plan to run in a recall, has given $100,000 to the recall effort against Newsom. Notably, rich guy bankrolling recall to run for the position did not work out well last time for Congressman Darrell Issa. 

John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018, seems to be set to run and is (unsurprisingly) predicting that Newsom will lose the race. Again, notably, while recall reruns have worked fine for many people, not so much in Gubernatorial recalls. 

Also, here's a Los Angeles Times column that is focused on me and this blog.

Alaska: Anchorage Assembly District facing recall efforts over pro-Nazi/vanity license plates social media posts

Anchorage Assembly Member Jamie Allard is facing recall efforts after she posted on Facebook defending vanity license plates with the words "fuhrer" and "3reich." Allard also alleged wrote that the words "are simply German words with no offensive connotation." She also said alleged wrote that "progressives have put a spin on it and created their own definition." 

Governor Mike Dunleavy has since removed Allard from the state's Human Rights Commission. Petitioners need about 2500 signatures to get on the ballot.

Arizona: Cochise County Supervisor facing recall threats over attendance in January 6th Capitol riot, conspiracy theory postings

Cochise County Supervisor Peggy Judd is facing recall threats after participating in the January 6th U.S. Capitol riot/insurrection, as well as posting conspiracy theories from the QAnon movement on Facebook. 

Oklahoma: Firm pushing McAlester Mayor and Council members recall hit with $4M default judgment

Forum Consulting Group, which was involved in a recall effort against McAlester Mayor John Browne and City Councilmembers Cully Stevens, James Brown and Zach Prichard, has been hit with a $4 million libel and slander default judgement by a Garvin County judge.

The judgments is in favor of Pauls Valley Councilmember Patrick Grimmett, who is also a Pauls Valley General Hospital trustee. The issue was the posting of a video falsely claiming abuse and adultery. 

The recall effort against the McAlester officials was over their vote to require protective face covering law to combat coronavirus pandemic. 

Browne has since said that he will try to remove a $100 fine provision from the law that requires faces to be covered in public settings in order to fight the pandemic. 

Oklahoma: Norman City Council recall tossed out due to Supreme Court decision

The recall effort against  Norman City Councilmember Alison Petrone has been tossed out by the Oklahoma Supreme Court due to its recent ruling in the Enid recall.  The court held that the municipal recall form needed an affidavit attesting to valid signatures and a warning against fraud. There are claims of voter fraud in the signature gathering process.

The recall effort appeared to get enough valid signatures to get on the ballot. Petitioners handed in 3444 signatures and had 2580 valid. 2573 were needed. 

An earlier recall against Mayor Breea Clark failed, as petitioners handed in 20661 and needed 18,124. Over 3600 signatures had been tossed out.  

City Councilwoman Sereta Wilson previously resigned in the face of the recall threat. It seems that they haven't handed in signatures against two other councilmembers who were threatened, City Council members Kate Bierman and Stephen Holman. 

The recall is over a vote to cut the police department's proposed budget by $865,000 (it appears not to be an actual cut -- the police wanted a big increase and got only a smaller one). There are also complaints about the council's push to require masks to stave off the coronavirus pandemic.

One other wrinkle -- Petrone is up for her regularly scheduled election a month later. 

South Carolina: My Op-ed looking at the proposed South Carolina recall

 Here it is in Statehouse Report. For some refresher: 

State Representatives Lin Bennett (R) and Patrick Haddon (R) are proposing a recall law (H.3256) for all state officials.

The rule would require 20% of registered voters for a recall of statewide officials and 25% for state-district and local officials. The rule would give a grace period from being sworn in and then have to wait two years after a failed recall. 

Nebraska: St. Paul Mayor facing recall effort

St. Paul Mayor Joel Bergman is facing a recall effort over the decision to not retain the police chief. Bergman was first elected in 2018. Petitioners need 257 signatures to get on the ballot by February 2.

Maine: New Gloucester Selectman recall makes the ballot

The recall effort against New Gloucester Selectman George Colby has made the ballot, with petitioners having over 300 signatures verified. They handed in 335 signatures and needed 293 (10% of turnout in the district in the last gubernatorial election) to get on the ballot.

Colby been censured after yelling out racist comments at the end of the Pledge of Allegiance during a recent board meeting (he allegedly said "Liberty and Justice for all, for everyone. Even us white folks!). E. The lead petitioner is a former Selectman. There is a supermajority provision, which requires that 55 percent of voters oppose Colby for the recall to lead to his removal.

California: Los Angeles Sheriff facing potential recall effort

 Los Angeles Sheriff Alex Villanueva is facing calls for his removal, including a potential recall threat. The sheriff's department is facing a civil rights probe over claims of excessive force, retaliation and misconduct.  

California: Wall Street Journal Op-ed and a deeper look at the Governor Gavin Newsom recall

Here's a link to an op-ed I wrote in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal on the likelihood of success of the Gavin Newsom recall effort. Let's explore the issues a little bit more below: 

Getting on the ballot is very doable, but Newsom has some advantages that may make this recall very different from the Gray Davis one.

California Governor has arguably the loosest recall requirements of any in the country. I run through the reasons why I believe that is true here. 

Despite being a now deep-blue state (it wasn’t always so!), California is not the Democratic monolith that many seem to believe. Go back to, oh, November, and you will find out that Donald Trump got six million votes. He may have been trounced percentage-wise, but California was his top state by pure numbers. If less than a third of those six million voters sign the petition, the Newsom recall is easily getting on the ballot. That’s one piece of good news for petitioners. 

The is that once a recall gets on the ballot it historically has a good chance of succeeding. 60% of recalls result in a removal, with another 5-7% resigning. 

The good news for Newsom is substantial: The Davis recall took place in a much different political climate for the country, one that saw a greater willingness on the part of voters to split their ticket (The Dakotas had four Democratic Senators at the time!). More importantly, California was a much different state. In 2000, Al Gore won 53%. This year, Biden won 63%. The margin of victory has also expanded. John Kerry won by close to 10% in 2004. But Joe Biden came in with a 29% victory. 

The direct comparison is even starker: Gray Davis eeked out a victory in 2002 by less than 5% -- Newsom won in 2018 by almost 24%. 

Separate factor at play is a look at all three gubernatorial recall elections, which saw only a small movement in the vote for the governor between the general election victory and the recall. In 1920, North Dakota’s Lynn Frazier won office with 51%, beating Democrat James Francis Thaddeus O’Connor (who got 49%). Frazier then got 49% of the vote in the 1921 recall, losing to fellow Republican Ragnvald Nestos (who got 51%). In 2002, Gray Davis got 47 percent of the vote, beating Bill Simon (who got 42%). Third party candidates did well in this race and turnout was an all time low. Davis effectively received 44 percent of the vote in the 2003 recall. In 2010, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 52 percent of the vote against Democrat Tom Barrett. In the 2012 recall, he got 53 percent (also against Barrett). 

Note that the California recall is a different process than the other two states. California uses an up or down vote on the official, followed by a same-day replacement race. North Dakota and Wisconsin saw a straightforward new election, which may be an advantage for the official, as they can contrast their stands with another candidate, rather than with themselves (as in California). 

 But the big takeaway that has to be dealt with is that Newsom would need a 12 point drop to get removed.

Oklahoma: State Supreme Court tosses out Enid Commissioner recall

The Oklahoma Supreme Court has thrown out the recall effort against Enid Commissioner Ben Ezzell, overturning a lower court ruling allowing the recall to go foward. The recall had been set for February 9, 2021.

Ezzell argued that the district court was incorrect in not requiring a strict truthfulness test in the petition, instead going with an "implicitly complied" one. He also argues that it does not contain language and warnings as required by a 1998 court ruling (Clapsaddle v. Blevins). The court ruled that the "fatal flaws" needed to be corrected by the court. 

The recall date was set to be held on the same day as the new elections for commissioner. Ezzell was termed out, so the race would have been focused on the last three months of his term. One of the candidates to replace Ezzell was a lead petitioner in the recall. 

The issue was Ezzell's support for the city to enforce the state's COVID-19 alert system and his criticism of the police chief for a failure to enforce a mask mandate proposal designed to combat the pandemic.

Update: The issue is now closed as there was no petition for a rehearing

Wyoming: Op-ed on the legal challenges of a federal recall

Here's an op-ed I wrote for the Casper Star Tribune on why a recall against Congresswoman Liz Cheney is very unlikely to occur as well as providing a look at the recall in Wyoming.

Oregon: Former Portland Mayor, target of recall threats, joining current city administration

An update on former Portland Mayor Sam Adams, who faced recall threats back in 2009, and is now in talks to return to City Hall as a high level staffer. 

Arizona: State GOP Meeting leads to some calls for Gubernatorial recall

A raucous State GOP meeting/election featured Daniel McCarthy, a former U.S. Senate candidate, calling for the recall of Governor Doug Ducey (R). McCarthy, who was booed, had previously proposed a third party after he lost the Senate primary in 2020. 

Ducey has previously faced recall efforts that failed. Two of them were over the statewide mask mandate to combat the coronavirus pandemic and earlier effort opposing stay-at-home orders. 

Congressman Paul Gosar (R) was supporting a recall effort over Ducey's refusal to violate the law and support the unconstitutional overthrow of the state's Electoral College vote. 

Petitioners would need over 594,111 signatures in 120 days.

Colorado: Douglas County School Board members facing recall effort over shutdowns

Douglas County School Board members Susan Meek, Elizabeth Hanson, Christina Ciancio-Schor and David Ray are facing a recall effort over a vote to postpone a classroom return due to the coronavirus pandemic. One parent is putting up $100,000 for the recall effort. The petitioner is looking to get 80,000 signatures -- presumably in the aggregate, rather than for each member. 

Update: About 15,000 signatures are required for each official.  

Canada: Call to expand recall in British Columbia to local level

The Canadian Taxpayer Federation is looking to expand the British Columbia recall to the local level. Right now, it is only available against MLAs.

Missouri: Senate Education Committee reports out bill that would establish procedures for school board recalls

The Missouri Senate Education Committee has pushed forward a bill that, among other things, will establish procedures for school board recalls. It sounds like petitioners would need 25 percent of registered voters, though let's see the final bill. This bill was sponsored by Senator Cindy O'Loughlin (R). Presumably, this is different than an earlier bill which also proposed expanding the recall to school boards.

Colorado: Buckhorn Valley Metropolitan District Board Members facing recall effort

Buckhorn Valley Metropolitan District Number 2 (BVMD) board members are facing a recall effort. Presumably, the members are John Hill, Anna Maria Ray, David Garton, Jr. and Scott Green (a fifth seat is open). Petitioners got approval from a District Court Judge. They would need about 300 signatures to get on the ballot (40 percent of voters). 

The issue is developer control of the community (petitioners claim the developers of the area have too much control of the board and its decisions). 

New Mexico: Otero County Commissioner facing recall effort for role in Capitol riot

Otero County Commissioner Couy Griffin, who was arrested for rioting at the US Capitol on January 6, is facing a recall effort, with two fellow commissioners, Vickie Marquardt and Gerald Matherly, saying they will support the recall effort if he does not resign. The Attorney General of the state has also called for his resignation. 

In addition to his participation in the seditious riot, he has been accused of calling for the murder of the Governors of Virginia and Michigan, called for violence at President Joe Biden's inauguration. 

Alaska: Petitioners making new effort in Governor recall effort

Petitioners have announced they are making a new push to collect the remaining 22,000 signatures to get the recall of Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy (R) on the ballot. Petitioners need 71,252 valids to get on the ballot. 

The Supreme Court has already upheld the recall and said that it meets the state's malfeasance standard. There is no time limit for the collection of the signatures. 

If Dunleavy were recalled, there would not be a replacement race. Instead, the Lieutenant Governor (a Republican) would automatically be moved up to Governor.