California: Newest poll shows potential for motivated voters -- 43% of likely voters in favor of recall; 36% of registered voter

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times is showing how important turnout will be for Newsom in the recall. The registered voters number is once again steady as she goes, with 36% of voters in favor of removal -- the same total as in the April and January. Newsom is actually doing somewhat better there -- he has gone from 45% in his favor to 51%.

The problem is with likely voters. There it is 47% in favor of removal, with Newsom at 50%. Republicans make up only 25% of voters, but 33% of likely voters. 

Among the replacement candidates, Larry Elder is leading with 18% of the vote, followed by John Cox and Kevin Faulconer at 10%

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