California: Update: 46 candidates! -- 41 candidates on the replacement ballot for gubernatorial recall -- why the drop off in expected candidates?

Update: The list is now 46. with Larry Elder added back on by a judge.

A surprisingly small 41 candidates have qualified for the replacement race -- though one of the most prominent names, Conservative talk show host Larry Elder -- is not on there. Elder has stated that he expects to be on, so it's not clear why he was left off (from his statements, he is suggesting some paperwork issues).

21 of the candidates are Republicans and eight are Democrats, nine independents, one libertarian and two Green Party members, though from what I see, none of the Democrats are an elected official or well known as one (YouTube real estate/investor Kevin Paffarth is seen as the biggest name).  

What explains the drop from the 135 candidates in 2003? Many (including me) were expecting at least as many candidates as in 2003. Here's four possible reasons:

1) A new law requiring candidates to reveal five years of taxes, which probably scares off enough longshots.

2) Democrats have done a great job scaring off any real Democratic contender. The lesson (for both the party and any candidate) of Cruz Bustamante has been learned.

3) The recall simply hasn't caught fire. The excitement is not there which clearly dampens the desire of people to get in the race. We've already seen a number of candidates test the waters and then drop out. 

4) Newsom is seen as the heavy favorite -- in 2003, there may have been some chance for a candidate to win or get press. But if Newsom has this in a walk, there's not going to the same attention.

5) California and the political atmosphere is more political than ever before. The result is that running in the recall may be seen as a partisan move (or a betrayal of your team). 

Who does this help? It's not clear at all. A boring underplayed recall effort may actually be a boon for Republicans and the pro-recall forces. Newsom needs to get people to the ballot (or mailbox as the case may be). The pro-recall voters are already fired up and ready to get out there. Can Newsom wake up his voters?