California: Will a big name Democrat jump into the replacement race? The cautionary tale of Cruz Bustamante

Some early chatter on whether a big name Democrat will jump into the replacement race, as the great naming has begun. We'll see what happens, but as long as Newsom is ahead, any serious name may be scared away.

Democrats see Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante's decision to get into the replacement race in the Gray Davis recall as a disaster (Garry South, Davis Advisor, suggested it cost Davis 5%). Bustamante paid a price in his political career -- he lost the Insurance Commissioner race in 2006, which combined with Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides, the gubernatorial candidate, were the last two Democrats to lose in a major statewide race. Bustamante, who got under 38% of the vote, has the unfortunate distinction of having the worst showing of any Democrat in a statewide race (not including Board of Equalizers) since at least 1994, when the top two law was passed.  

In the Colorado recalls in 2013, Democrats didn't run any replacement candidate. Hard to say that it mattered. In 2018 in the Josh Newman recall a Democrat did run, to no avail.

The one recent example I can think of this strategy working was a two-day recall in 2011/2012 in Michigan against State Representative Paul Scott (i.e., the replacement race was months later).