California: Is signer party identification a red flag for petitioners in the Newsom recall?

The recall proponents looking to oust California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) have been justly crowing about handing in an estimated 2,117,730 signatures (they need 1,495,709 valids and that seems like enough of a cushion based on past failure rates -- barring an impressive signature strike effort).

However, in what may be an "It's not what you want" stat, Dave Gilliard, a Republican recall strategist, tweeted that the breakdown of signers was 64.1% Republicans. 25.3% No Party Preference; 9% Democrat; 1.6% Other. The signers were evenly divided by gender, with 49.48% of signers listed as Female. 

It does not seem that there was a breakdown of the 2003 Gray Davis petitions by party breakdown, but there are exit polls that show how voting went -- and recall proponents would need some different numbers come election day. In 2003, almost 25% of Democrats reportedly voted to oust Davis, and 55% of Independents went that way as well (91% of Republicans voted for removal, which shouldn't be a surprise). California is also a vastly less Republican state than it was in 2003. 

I do realize this is comparing apples to oranges -- the percent numbers are measuring two separate things, (one if percent of signers who are Democrat, the other percent of Democrats who voted one way) but it does show that a good number of Democrats and independents were needed to succeed.

The one stat that is a particular positive for petitioners is the nearly 50% Female signers. Back in 2003, the recall did 7% better among men than women. The gender gap between the parties has widened significantly since then.

It could very well be that Democrats and independents will behave very differently at the ballot box than at the signing phase (one is an obviously vastly more public rejection of the party). But that is a stat that suggests the petitioners have some serious work to do.