California: Newsom Round -- Jenner on TV (eventually); The Great Naming continues; Polls!

Caitlyn Jenner has been criticized for a disappearing act on the campaign trail -- so she will now be appearing on Sean Hannity's show on May 5th.

The great naming continues, as LA Magazine has a list of Democrats who could run if Newsom stumbles -- Representatives Karen Bass, Adam Schiff and Ted Lieu get on the mention board, as does LA County Supervisor (and former Congresswoman and Secretary of Labor -- an impressive 19th Century throwback resume) Hilda Solis, Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia and, of course, Antonio Villaraigosa

Polls! Newsom getting some good grades, with 59% liking the handling of school reopening  

Yes, Latino voters will be an important component of a recall vote. 

California: New recall attempt against Los Angeles Councilmember

Another recall attempt has been launched against Councilman Mike Bonin, this time over what may be his support for the shutdowns to prevent further damage from the coronavirus pandemic, as well as his positions on the homeless issue. Bonin previously faced a recall effort in 2017-2018 over his road diet plan -- the DOT's removal of 9.4 miles of traffic lanes to prevent pedestrian deaths. 

Lat time, petitioners needed 27,000 signatures and claim to have raised over $100,000. One of the petitioners back then was Mike Ryavec, who lost to Bonin in the last election in 2017.

Arizona: Recall effort against four Maricopa County Supervisors fails to turn in signatures

The recall effort against four Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, Chairman Clint Hickman (R), Vice Chair Jack Sellers (R) and Supervisors Bill Gates (R) and Steve Gallardo (D), failed.

The recall effort was launched after the board voted 4-1 to ignore subpoenas issued by the  head of the state Senate's Judiciary Committee, Senator Eddie Farnsworth (R) looking for an audit of the county's election software. The Supervisors instead filed a suit to see if the subpoenas were legal, as there are questions of whether it would illegally expose private information about voters. The court overturned the Board of Supervisors.

There is still an effort ongoing against Steve Churci (R) (who was the one vote against) -- those petitions are due in June.

Petitioners needed a wide range of signature amounts -- from 49,750 to 110,110 to get on the ballot.

The same group, People AZ Alliance, is trying to recall Governor Doug Ducey, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman and State Senator Paul Boyer.

California: Riverside Recall effort fails

The recall effort against Riverside City Councilwoman Gaby Plascencia failed, as no signatures were handed in. Plascencia faced criticism over a proposed bill to cut off water from businesses not following pandemic restriction, a vote for a housing building and other issues. She also previously face complaints over her social media posts claiming that it was hypocritical for Republicans to celebrate Labor Day. Petitioners needed about 4300 signatures to get on the ballot.

Washington: Security Guards hired to protect signature count in Benton County Sheriff recall

Security guards have been hired to protect the signature counting sites for the recall of Benton County Sheriff Jerry Hatcher. They handed in over16,500. They need about 14000 valids to get on the ballot.

Colorado: Westminster Mayor and Councilmember recall get enough signatures for the ballot; two others fail to clear the bar

The twists and turns over the Westminster recall has now hit a new note, with petitioners getting enough signatures to get recalls against Westminster Mayor Herb Atchison and Councilor Jon Voelz to get to the ballot, but petitions against Councilors Anita Seitz and Kathryn Skulley failing to clear the bar. This all comes after a state judge ruled that a city clerk was wrong in tossing out signatures due to petitioners unstapling the cover sheets of the petitions. The judge ruled that the stapling issue was unintentional. The recall is over water bills. Petitioners needed 25% of turnout, which is 5009 signatures for Atchison and 6,098 for the three council members. Skulley's signatures missed by 61; Atchison by 282; Voelz by 635 and Seitz by 757. Atchison's effort got more than a 1000 over the limit and Voelz just got 9. Seitz missed by 35 signatures and Skulley by 23.

Washington: Petitions out against Seattle City Council member

Petitioners have begun mailing signature petitions in the recall effort against Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant (the first socialist elected to Seattle's council in 100 years).  

The State Supreme Court has upheld a lower court judge ruling approving the recall effort against Two of the six charges were dismissed sat the lower level. Sawant would be the first councilmember to face a recall in Seattle's history (though two Mayors were kicked out).

The recall effort was over a kitchen sink of complaints, including revealing the mayor's home address, giving decision-making authority to Socialist Alternative (which has been a complaint against her before, though it was dismissed by the Ethics and Election Commission), promoting a ballot initiative, letting protesters in City Hall after hours and helping to create a criminal environment.

Petitioners would need 10,739 signatures to get on the ballot. Washington is also a "malfeasance standard/judicial recall state", so a recall effort needed to get approval to get on the ballot.

Colorado: Election Bill looks to make changes to recall law

A Colorado Election Bill sponsored by the majority Democrats in the Senate has several sections dealing with the recall. Among the provisions are requiring circulators to wear a badge that distinguishes between volunteers and paid circulators. The bill also would require that petitioners make no false statements (changing the current language from may not include to shall. )It also would explicitly state that a recall vote that ends in a tie would lead to the official retaining the office (which I assumed was the case and is the case elsewhere). 

Currently, there is a third ongoing attempt to recall Governor Jared Polis (D).

California: Newsom Recall Round up -- Celebrities poor results for higher office run

Mark Barabak looks at the poor history of celebrities seeking higher office in the land of Hollywood

Randy Quaid now "seriously considering" recall run

Arnold Schwarzenegger has some advice for Caitlyn Jenner

Willie Brown weighs in

Claims that Jenner's children are embarrassed by the run

Some more on how the process works

Op-ed by Thad Kousser on changes that need to be made in the recall. May have more to say on this. 

Ohio: Newton Falls City Council recall runs into trouble over election date/quorum for scheduling

More trouble with the Newton Falls recall, as the May 25 election date has been rejected by the County Board of Elections because three members walked out, depriving the council of a quorum. 

There was part of a previous crazy scheduling event here, as the Newton Falls City Council scheduled the recall of Councilwoman Sandra Breymaier (D) for May 25, 2021. Breymaier's supporters looked to push the recall to the May 2022 election. This was rejected after Mayor Ken Kline (R) refused to let Breymaier vote and Breymaier's two council supporters left the meeting (and the law director was ejected).

The recall is over complaint of unprofessionalism, name-calling against the mayor and a vote in favor of smart meters. Breymaier claiming that Kline is behind the recall effort. Breymaier notes that she is a swing vote on the Council. Kline denies he is behind the recall effort.  

Newton Falls has an interesting history with the recall.

Wisconsin: Two Rosendale-Brandon School Board members facing petitions over school consolidation vote

Rosendale-Brandon School Board members Jennifer Riedeman and Craig Mulder are facing recall efforts after they voted to consolidate Rosendale Intermediate School and Brandon Middle School (the vote was 6-3 in favor). Petitioners need 662 signatures in 60 days. The recall is estimated to cost $10,000.

California: Shasta County Supervisor recall hits snag over lack of petitioner signatures in ad

The Shasta County recall effort has run into its first problem, as petitioners failed to sign the ad taken out in the newspaper. Supervisors Leonard Moty, Mary Rickert and Joe Chimenti are facing threats over their support for restrictions to fight the Covid pandemic. Here's a vastly more detailed look at the fight, which notes that petitioners would need about 4000 valid signatures. There is also a claim that the recall proponents have copied their logo from the QAnon logo. 

The cost is between $200,000 and $400,000.

California: The Ball is in Newsom's court -- signature removal laws, spending issues and the signature failure rates

A few key points surrounding yesterday's news that California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) recall effort has got enough signatures to get on the ballot.

1. We don't have final signature numbers yet, but at last count there were 1,626,042 valid signatures. The petitioners turned in 2,117,730. They need 1,495,709 valid to make the ballot. I am not clear if there may be more valid signatures still to be reported. At the moment, that would break down to a 23.3% signature failure rate -- a bit worse than in the Gray Davis recall, but better than many other prominent ones in California.

2. The actual amount matters because the ball now moves into Newsom's court. Newsom is able to start gathering signatures for a counter-petition to get the recall removed. Anyone who signed the petition can now ask to have their names removed. If Newsom gets enough of those signatures in thirty days (at the moment, he would need over 130,000 of them), the recall would be dropped. Seems unlikely -- but it has happened before. 

3. One challenge here is that Newsom does not know who signed the recall petitions. That information is secret and a bill that would have allowed it to be revealed for future races (though not for Newsom) seems to have gone down in flames.

4. The signature removal (or signature strike) law has a long and not so glorious history that I recount in an op-ed in The Hill. A 1915 court ruling ended hopes for a signature removal law. But other states had it, including Nevada, which recently used it (though a judicial decision avoided explaining if the law is legal).

5. California adopted the signature strike law in 2017 in order to ward off a recall against State Senator Josh Newman (D). Part of the goal was also to delay the recall against Newman -- which potentially helps Newsom here. It did not work for Newman, though he did get a good number of signature removals. It did help Newport Beach Councilman Scott Peotter, who killed a recall attempt in 2017.

6. The first discussion is out on the cost of the recall -- not including campaign spending, just the cost to the state. Right now, we're hearing a $400 million. I would expect that the Democrats want to tout a very high number, so they can argue the recall is a waste of money, and Republicans want a low one. Dianne Feinstein used the "waste of money" argument to great effect in her 1983 San Francisco Mayoral recall and I would expect that it will be one of the pillars of the Newsom campaign (the other pillar being a straight D v. R argument that helped Newsom get a 24% margin in 2018).

7. It is always a challenge to figure out the cost -- we will not have an official number for over two months. 

California: Clerks estimate a $400 million price tag for recall election

The California Association of Clerks and Elected Officials are estimating a $400 million price tag for a Newsom recall, which would take place as a mail-in ballot. This number is based on the 2020 election, whose cost has not been announced, but apparently 33 of 58 counties have sent in their numbers and that has equaled $292 million.

The Davis recall was estimated to have cost between $53 - $66 million (though I've heard the higher number). 

Michigan: Petitions taken out against Ann Arbor Councilman

Petitions have been taken out against Ann Arbor Councilman Jeff Hayner has been targeted with petitions over recent homophobic comments in an attack on journalists -- his comments were apparently an extended quote from Hunter Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Hayner has already been ousted from committees by the rest of the council. Unfortunately, I couldn't open the original article, so no word on signature requirements. 

Update: Hayner is appealing the petition approval -- again, waiting to see the article on a free site.

California: Secretary of State Reports Recall meets signature requirement -- petitioners have 1,626,042 valids

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber has confirmed that petitioners have turned in enough signatures to get the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom on the ballot. Currently, the petitioners have 1,626,042 signatures and they need 1,495,709.  The county clerks have until April 29 to finish their count of signatures -- this total is actually quite important for the next stage of the recall effort. Newsom will be able to gather signatures to get the recall removed from the ballot.

This is clearly a big historical moment. This is clearly the most signatures ever needed for a recall in the US (the Venezuelan Presidential recall in 2004 actually needed more signatures). It may be the highest bar ever passed for any position or initiative of any kind in the US. 

On the signature removal front, I have an op-ed in the Hill tomorrow that goes through the history. It has worked in the past, so the effort should not be dismissed. However, one challenge Newsom will face is that he will not have the names of any of the signers, as that information is not released to the public (a big difference than Wisconsin). There has been a proposal to change that law, but it is currently going nowhere, so that limits the options for the signature removal effort. 

Washington: 16500+ signatures handed in against Benton County Sheriff

Petitioners handed in over 16500 signatures in the recall effort against Benton County Sheriff Jerry Hatcher. They need about 14000 valids to get on the ballot.

The Deputy Sheriff's Guild membership was leading the way. An independent investigator found that Hatcher retaliated against a whistleblower and two witnesses and engaged in anti-union activity.

Hatcher also has run into personal issues with his wife filing a civil protection order claiming that he choked her during a fight over his extramarital affairs. The order meant he had to surrender his firearm. He also was previously charged with felony witness tampering and assault, though chargers were dismissed.

Hatcher is now claiming he lives in a cabin in Montana and is suing his wife to cover the expenses of the recall defense.  

The recall was approved by the Washington State Supreme Court. Previously a judge had green lit a recall effort, ruling that petitioners have met Washington's malfeasance standard on eight charges.

Michigan: Recalls target four Rochester School Board members over COVID restrictions

Rochester School Board members Barbara Anness, Kevin Beers, Michelle Bueltel and Andrea Walker-Leidy are facing recall efforts for their support for distance and hybrid learning to fight the coronavirus pandemic. The recall effort has already put forward two petitions, both of which have been rejected on factualness/clarity grounds. 

California: Caitlyn Jenner says "I'm in" -- first media star to announce a run

Plenty of coverage of Caitlyn Jenner's "I'm in" announcement as a replacement candidate in the recall, focused on California as a one party state. My comment in the Guardian is not the most generous, I will freely admit, as I note that it feels like "at best a publicity stunt, as worst a way to raise funds from Republican supporters." I may explain this in greater detail later, until then, well, you know...

California: Report shows that Caitlyn Jenner not a regular voter

 While there's still a bit of buzz surrounding Caitlyn Jenner's potential run for Governor, a new report says that she has voted in only a little over 1/3rd of elections since 2000. Among the elections that she skipped was Gavin Newsom's win in 2018 and the 2003 recall vote.