Thursday, June 26, 2025

Ballotpedia reports drop in recall attempts for first half of 2025

Ballotpedia is reporting that the first half of 2025 has the lowest number of recall attempts since 2020, a year that in the end had a fairly standard number of recall attempts (though, due to COVID, a significant drop in those that made the ballot). One fact to note is that odd number years usually see a drop in recalls. I discuss that phenomena here in 2019:

This see-sawing does fit with a general pattern. Recalls are more likely in the even numbered national election years (presidential or Congress), rather than in the odd numbered years. This may seem somewhat counterintuitive (as some of these officials are facing the voters that year anyway), but there are practical reasons. I’ve mentioned these before, but here it is again:


  1. The lock-up or grace periods – many jurisdictions have a period where officials are exempt from facing a recall or (in some cases) even having petitions taken out against them. This period can range from three months to a year after their term begins (which is usually in January). Since so many officials are elected in even-year elections, there is less chance to get a recall on the ballot.
     
  2. Consolidation – states are frequently required to consolidate recalls with the next primary or general election, thereby obviating the need and expense of a special election. Michigan, one of the leading recall states, changed its law in 2012 to consolidate elections. The result is that a number of recalls are pushed off until 2020.
  3. Operator error -- I'm fairly certain that I missed recalls. I've compared it to other available sources (the good people at Ballotpedia have done an excellent job of compiling data), but there is no question that recalls are not being counted. However, I like to think that I've at least maintained my existing level of incompetency, and any errors this year would probably be roughly the same as last year.
  4. Paywalls -- Newspapers and websites are increasingly behind paywalls. Local sites that are critical to doing this research (there is no state or local governmental reporting) on recalls seem to be failing at an increased rate. I think the closing off of the web may make it harder to see recalls and reports of recalls. I can't say that it is the real factor though.
One factor that I had previously considered is that there was a drop-off in political interest and enthusiasm in off-years. While this is possibly, I do find it somewhat unlikely in our current political climate.

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