Who Will Be the Next Victim of the Grand Bounce? A nonpartisan, nonjudgmental look at the “Hair-Trigger” Form of Government
Friday, February 28, 2020
California: Recall effort against Simi Valley City Council member suspended
The recall effort against Simi Valley City Council member Ruth Luevanos has been suspended over what the leaders say is concerns over cost. Petitioners would need about 11,000 signatures to get on the ballot. Luevanos is facing the threat after she claimed that there was a federal ICE agents raid at a supermarket.
North Dakota: Two Williams School Board Members recalls appear to be ousted in close unofficial results
Williams School Board President Penny Soiseth and Vice President Curt Sullivan both appear to have lost their recall vote, with Soiseth ousted by Sarah Williams 310-309, with a third candidate Selena Gustaveson getting 109 (and 7 write-in votes). Sullivan lost to Chris Jundt 434-399. With such a close vote, it is possible that it will be overturned.
The issue was complaints about transparency and a push for $12 million to expanded Williston High School.
The issue was complaints about transparency and a push for $12 million to expanded Williston High School.
Massachusetts: More info on Westford School Board Members Recall Effort
Some more info on the Westford School Board recall against members Avery Adam, Chris Sanders, Gloria Miller, Alicia Mallon, MingQuan Zheng and Megan Eckroth. The recall is over a vote to not renew a longtime Superintendent contract. A seventh member, Sean Kelly, voted in favor of renewing the contract.
Apparently, Eckroth and Miller are up for reelection and won't be facing a recall vote. Petitioners need about 1600 signatures each to get on the ballot.
Apparently, Eckroth and Miller are up for reelection and won't be facing a recall vote. Petitioners need about 1600 signatures each to get on the ballot.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Massachusetts: Signatures verified against two Kingston Selectmen
Signatures have been certified for the recall of Kingston Selectmen Chairman Josh Warren and Selectman Elaine Fiore. Petitioners handed in 2200 signatures and got 2073 valid. They needed 1987. The recall effort is over claims of a verbal aggressive attack on Selectman Jessica Kramer by a town employee and Warren's refusal to put the employee on leave. There was a counter claim that petitioners are upset about taxes and are looking for them to fire the Town Administrator.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
Canada: Alberta Recall law may be moving, though discussion of tabling the legislation
Alberta's UCP now appears to be moving forward with a plan to adopt a recall law, though it may table the legislation for the fall term. This comes after UCP MLA Mark Smith introduced a private members' recall bill for the Alberta Legislature.
Smith had previously introduced the bill in 2016 as a Wildrose MLA. The recall proposal would oust the MLA if petitioners get 40% of eligible voters signatures in a 60 day period. There is a long grace period -- 18 months after a general election and 6 months before.
This article notes that Alberta had a recall law in the 1930s, passed by the Social Credit government in 1936 (needing 66.6% of voter signatures), though the law was repealed in 1937 when a campaign was expected to work against Premier William Aberhart's Okotos-High River. There have been 8 attempts to add a recall law since 1993. More on that here.
Smith had previously introduced the bill in 2016 as a Wildrose MLA. The recall proposal would oust the MLA if petitioners get 40% of eligible voters signatures in a 60 day period. There is a long grace period -- 18 months after a general election and 6 months before.
This article notes that Alberta had a recall law in the 1930s, passed by the Social Credit government in 1936 (needing 66.6% of voter signatures), though the law was repealed in 1937 when a campaign was expected to work against Premier William Aberhart's Okotos-High River. There have been 8 attempts to add a recall law since 1993. More on that here.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Florida: Miami Commissioners look to change law to grant 1 year waiting period after a first recall vote fails
Miami Commissioners are looking to tighten the city's recall law, increasing the waiting period before a second recall can start to one year after the first effort fails. Many jurisdictions only allow one recall per term. There is currently a recall effort being launched against Commissioner Joe Carollo.
Massachusetts: Town Clerk not overseeing signature certification against two Kingston Selectmen to avoid conflict of interest claims
Town Clerk Paul Gallagher has stepped away from the certification process of the recall against Kingston Selectmen Chairman Josh Warren and Selectman Elaine Fiore. Petitioners have handed in 2200 signatures in the recalls and Gallagher claims that he wants to avoid any conflict of interest issues.
The recall effort is over claims of a verbal aggressive attack on Selectman Jessica Kramer by a town employee and Warren's refusal to put the employee on leave. Petitioners are upset about taxes and are looking for them to fire the Town Administrator.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
The recall effort is over claims of a verbal aggressive attack on Selectman Jessica Kramer by a town employee and Warren's refusal to put the employee on leave. Petitioners are upset about taxes and are looking for them to fire the Town Administrator.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
Colorado River Indian Tribes Vice Chairman facing recall efforts
Colorado River Indian Tribes Vice Chairman Keith Moses is facing a recall effort after his second DUI and claims that he misappropriated tribal funds for a motel and apartment for his brother.
Moses and other members previously faced a recall effort over the issue is the leasing of water allotment, which petitioners claim was done in secret.
Moses and other members previously faced a recall effort over the issue is the leasing of water allotment, which petitioners claim was done in secret.
Wisconsin: Former State Senator Luther Olsen, survivor of 2011 recall vote, retiring
State Senator Luther Olsen (R), who survived a recall vote in 2011, is not seeking reelection.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Alaska: Signature gathering begins against Governor; Pro-Governor group drops part in Supreme Court case
Some major developments that suggests that the recall effort may be able clear the Alaska Supreme Court and get a recall on the ballot against Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy (R).
Signature booklets were handed out by the Division of Elections to allow signatures to be gathered against the Governor. This followed the Alaska Supreme Court ruling overturning a stay to prevent signatures collection from beginning.
At the same time, Stand Tall with Mike, the pro-Dunleavy independent expenditure group, has withdrawn its appeal and seems to be dropping out from the court case against the recall. The case will still go on, as the Alaska Attorney General is appealing a ruling that says that the recall can continue. However, the fact that the big anti-recall group is moving away from the courts and into the realm of public opinion suggests that they may believe that the court case will not go their way.
It could be that the group is dropping out to try to at least ensure that the recall is not delayed too much and instead takes place at the same time as the general election rather than as a special election. There is a belief, that incumbents are disproportionately disadvantaged by special elections and will do better during a general election. I long thought this as well, but my research suggests that this is not the case and incumbents actually do worse when a recall takes place on a General Election or Primary Day. That said, the logic of trying to have a recall on the General Election date is clearly sound. Alaska voters will undoubtedly vote Republican by double digits in the presidential election (with the exception of Johnson in 1964, the state has never voted for a Democrat). This could only help Dunleavy in warding off a recall vote.
The recall is over major spending cuts, delays in appointing judges misusing state funds and mistakenly vetoing funds. Alaska is a malfeasance standard/judicial recall state, so a showing of cause is needed (though the state courts has taken a lenient view of the the cause requirement in past instances).
Petitioners needed to first get 28,501 signatures. If the decision is upheld, they would need 71,252 signatures to get to the ballot. Note that of the 49,006 signatures that they've already received, a third were by Democrats. If Dunleavy were recalled, there would not be a replacement race. Instead, the Lieutenant Governor (a Republican) would automatically be moved up to Governor.
Signature booklets were handed out by the Division of Elections to allow signatures to be gathered against the Governor. This followed the Alaska Supreme Court ruling overturning a stay to prevent signatures collection from beginning.
At the same time, Stand Tall with Mike, the pro-Dunleavy independent expenditure group, has withdrawn its appeal and seems to be dropping out from the court case against the recall. The case will still go on, as the Alaska Attorney General is appealing a ruling that says that the recall can continue. However, the fact that the big anti-recall group is moving away from the courts and into the realm of public opinion suggests that they may believe that the court case will not go their way.
It could be that the group is dropping out to try to at least ensure that the recall is not delayed too much and instead takes place at the same time as the general election rather than as a special election. There is a belief, that incumbents are disproportionately disadvantaged by special elections and will do better during a general election. I long thought this as well, but my research suggests that this is not the case and incumbents actually do worse when a recall takes place on a General Election or Primary Day. That said, the logic of trying to have a recall on the General Election date is clearly sound. Alaska voters will undoubtedly vote Republican by double digits in the presidential election (with the exception of Johnson in 1964, the state has never voted for a Democrat). This could only help Dunleavy in warding off a recall vote.
The recall is over major spending cuts, delays in appointing judges misusing state funds and mistakenly vetoing funds. Alaska is a malfeasance standard/judicial recall state, so a showing of cause is needed (though the state courts has taken a lenient view of the the cause requirement in past instances).
Petitioners needed to first get 28,501 signatures. If the decision is upheld, they would need 71,252 signatures to get to the ballot. Note that of the 49,006 signatures that they've already received, a third were by Democrats. If Dunleavy were recalled, there would not be a replacement race. Instead, the Lieutenant Governor (a Republican) would automatically be moved up to Governor.
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Non-Recall Op-ed on a Brokered Democratic Convention
While this is not recall related, I wanted to expand a little on
a op-ed I wrote for the Hill that examines the potential of a Brokered Democratic Convention and how the changes that have been made since the last
one to go to more than one ballot (Adlai Stevenson back in 1952) could greatly
impact the race and any dealmaking for the nomination.
While we are now seeing quite a bit of coverage on a Brokered Convention, it generally ignores a major fact -- the delegates are actual
people who are not bound to support anyone. They can switch their vote on at
any time and owe no allegiance to any candidate or political boss. Furthermore,
as oppose to in the past, a great many of these delegates are probably not
political professionals.
The delegates of the conventions of yore were frequently political
professionals who may have owed their jobs to the political bosses of the state.
Many of those people are now Superdelegates, who can’t vote until a second
ballot. Back then, delegates were also limited in who they can support by the
Unit Rule, which forced the delegates of the state to vote as one (that rule is
now banned).
Not so today – see this story about some of Senator Bernie
Sanders’ NY delegates and how they are drawn from other walks of life. Many of
them may solely have loyalty to the candidate, or may not have even that.
What this may mean is that there is an “all bets are off” nature
to a contested convention. It could be that the prevailing thought that deals
can be made by simply trading delegates between candidates is wishful thinking,
as delegates can simply not following the leader. The delegates themselves will
have minds of their own.
Consider this – there are almost four thousand delegates, not
including the Superdelegates. This is more than three times the amount from
1952. By comparison, there are only a maximum of 538 Electors in the Electoral
College, where there would presumably be better vetting than the thousands of
delegates in a convention. And in the Electoral College, the candidates seem to
be having an increasingly hard time keeping those electors in line. In 2016, 10
electors tried to cast ballots for someone other than who they were elected to
vote for.
What will happen? Who knows, but the Democrats better start
planning ahead.
Oregon: Newberg Mayor and City Councilor facing recall efforts
Newberg Mayor Rick Rogers and City Councilor Stephanie Findley are facing recall efforts. Councilmember Gene Piros was going to be targeted, but he has served less than 6 months in office.
The recall appears to be over complaints about sexual harassment, racial discrimination and federal whistle blower complaints. They also are calling for the firing the Interim City Manager and City Attorney.
Petitioners need 1495 signatures by May 4.
Update: The recall effort has failed with no signatures submitted.
The recall appears to be over complaints about sexual harassment, racial discrimination and federal whistle blower complaints. They also are calling for the firing the Interim City Manager and City Attorney.
Petitioners need 1495 signatures by May 4.
Update: The recall effort has failed with no signatures submitted.
Massachusetts: Signatures handed in against two Kingston Selectmen
Petitioners have handed in 2200 signatures in the recalls against Kingston Selectmen Chairman Josh Warren and Selectman Elaine Fiore are facing recall effort over claims of a verbal aggressive attack on Selectman Jessica Kramer by a town employee and Warren's refusal to put the employee on leave. Petitioners are upset about taxes and are looking for them to fire the Town Administrator.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
Petitioners need approximately 1987 signatures (20% of registered voters) to get on the ballot.
A third Selectman, Sandy MacFarlane, is up for an election, so she will not be facing a recall effort.
Kingston had a recall in 1991, with Board of Health member Larry Slot being kicked out.
West Virginia: Clarksburg charter amendment proposes recall law
Clarksburg City Council is voting on whether to allow a vote on whether the city should adopt a recall law.
Wisconsin: Door County Supervisor recall winner is facing the same candidate in a new election
In what looks like a rerun of the November 19 recall, Door County Supervisor Roy Englebert, who survived the recall vote winning 53.85%, will once again face Forestville Trustee Lora Jorgensen (who got 33% n the recall).
The recall was a primary, though since Englebert topped 50%, he won outright. The recall was over a plan to draw down the Forestville Dam Mill Pond to dry out contaminated sediment from the pond. Opponents claim it will hurt the fish stock. The recall was the first against a supervisor in the county since 2002.
The recall was a primary, though since Englebert topped 50%, he won outright. The recall was over a plan to draw down the Forestville Dam Mill Pond to dry out contaminated sediment from the pond. Opponents claim it will hurt the fish stock. The recall was the first against a supervisor in the county since 2002.
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
California: Anaheim Mayor facing recall effort
Anaheim Mayor Harry Sidhu is facing a recall effort over what seems like the kitchen sink group of complaints, though the major one seems to be rent control increases and proposed changes. There are also complaints about Angel Stadium negotiations. A notice was filed on February 7. Petitioners would need more than 14000 signatures to get on the ballot.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Alaska: State Supreme Court allows signature gathering to begin in Governor recall effort; Court still waiting to hear case
The Alaska Supreme Court has now allowed petitioners to begin collecting signatures in the recall of Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy (R). The ruling comes after Superior Court Judge Eric Aarseth issued a stay on his ruling holding that petitioners have adequate grounds to seek the recall of the Governor. That decision overturned the Division of Elections and Attorney General's positions that the recall did not hit the malfeasance standard requirement in Alaska.
The Supreme Court decision means that the petitioners can start collecting while the Supreme Court gets set to weigh in on the ruling.
Aarseth previously issues a lifted his decision that halted the collection of signatures until the Alaska Supreme Court ruled on the case, then lifted the stay and said that the stay was handed down inadvertently.
The recall is over major spending cuts, delays in appointing judges misusing state funds and mistakenly vetoing funds. Alaska is a malfeasance standard/judicial recall state, so a showing of cause is needed (though the state courts has taken a lenient view of the the cause requirement in past instances).
Petitioners needed to first get 28,501 signatures. If the decision is upheld, they would need 71,252 signatures to get to the ballot. Note that of the 49,006 signatures that they've already received, a third were by Democrats.
The Supreme Court decision means that the petitioners can start collecting while the Supreme Court gets set to weigh in on the ruling.
Aarseth previously issues a lifted his decision that halted the collection of signatures until the Alaska Supreme Court ruled on the case, then lifted the stay and said that the stay was handed down inadvertently.
The recall is over major spending cuts, delays in appointing judges misusing state funds and mistakenly vetoing funds. Alaska is a malfeasance standard/judicial recall state, so a showing of cause is needed (though the state courts has taken a lenient view of the the cause requirement in past instances).
Petitioners needed to first get 28,501 signatures. If the decision is upheld, they would need 71,252 signatures to get to the ballot. Note that of the 49,006 signatures that they've already received, a third were by Democrats.
California: Look at campaign finance reports on Santa Cruz Council recall
Here's a look at the effort to get the recall against Santa Cruz Councilmen Drew Glover and Chris Krohn on the ballot -- which is going to be on the March 3 primary ballot.
The issue's focus has been over allegations of a focus on a homeless camp and at city meetings. This article looks at the group that lead the recall, Santa Cruz Together and Santa Cruz United, who spent over $100,000 to get the recall on the ballot. The article notes that Santa Cruz Together were focused on removing Measure M, a rent control initiative.
The issue's focus has been over allegations of a focus on a homeless camp and at city meetings. This article looks at the group that lead the recall, Santa Cruz Together and Santa Cruz United, who spent over $100,000 to get the recall on the ballot. The article notes that Santa Cruz Together were focused on removing Measure M, a rent control initiative.
Sunday, February 16, 2020
New Jersey: Mahwah Mayor facing calls for resignation
Mahwah Mayor John Roth, who won office in a recall against Mayor Bill Laforet in 2018, is now facing calls to resign, including by the Recall Campaign Committee of 2018. Roth admitted to drunk driving at a recent party, as well as hitting a parked car on election night. A recall hasn't started yet.
Taiwan: Petitioners gather over 270K signatures in Kaohsiung Mayor recall
Petitioners now claim 270,639 signatures have been gathered for the recall of Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yuto (who recently lost the presidential race), which could be enough to get the recall on the ballot.
Petitioners needed to get signatures of 1% of the city, and have gotten that. They had 28,560 verified and the needed 22,814. Now, petitioners need 10% of eligible voters to sign (about 230,000).
Han was the Kuomintang Presidential candidate, and was being threatened with a recall following flooding in the town (though presumably this may be part of the presidential political wrangling). There is an absentee voter provision -- 25% of eligible voters must cast ballots for the recall to count.
Petitioners needed to get signatures of 1% of the city, and have gotten that. They had 28,560 verified and the needed 22,814. Now, petitioners need 10% of eligible voters to sign (about 230,000).
Han was the Kuomintang Presidential candidate, and was being threatened with a recall following flooding in the town (though presumably this may be part of the presidential political wrangling). There is an absentee voter provision -- 25% of eligible voters must cast ballots for the recall to count.
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