Impact of Petition Signing on Voter Turnout

The Election Law Blog notes an interesting paper

North Dakota: NYT op-ed on the Non-Partisan League's bank

This op-ed gives some of the details surrounding the 1921 recalls of the Governor, Attorney General and Agriculture Commissioner. See this article by David Schechter, a Cal State Fresno Political Science professor for possibly the best detailed explanation of the Frazier recall.

Wisconsin: Assembly Minority Leader not running for Gov

Here

California: Calaveras Supervisor recall abandoned

Second recall effort against District Supervisor Darren Spellman abandoned. The proponents handed in only 10 signatures on the original petition request -- they needed 20. They claim that the delay will end a chance of getting on the November ballot, and they did not want the expense of a special election. Note that in December, the first recall fell 366 signatures short of the 1,702 need.

The article notes a few of the actions that led to the recall campaign:

After showing up to his first board meeting in hip waders to suggest he would be trudging through mud, Spellman has accused other officials of corruption, announced his intent to run for Congress, and used his position on the Board of Supervisors to threaten the job of a high school teacher.

Wisconsin: Republicans to run "fake" candidates in Democratic Senate Primaries

The four Democratic Senate hopefuls will all face "fake" primary opponents, according to Republican Party officials. The goal is to push the election so it is on the same day as the Walker recall -- otherwise, the Democrats may have had a serious advantage in those races (as their votes would be more likely to come out for the Gubernatorial primary vote).

Barrett Announces for The Governor's Seat -- a brief history of recall rematches

Here's the announcement. Most recalls are not rematches, though Wisconsin has three recent counter-examples -- Sheboygan Mayor, the upcoming Wanggaard v. Lehman Wisconsin Senate race and the Randy Hopper v. Jessica King race last year. Arizona's Quartzsite mayor is a different example from this year -- mayor lost the recall last year, and came in first (though there is a runoff) in this year's election.

Wisconsin: Fundraising limits now apply

Once the GAB signs off on the recall (as they did today), the unlimited donation period ends. Now, there is a $10,000 limit per person. Of course, since most of the money may be spent by outside groups, this might not matter.

Why are there so few invalid signatures in Wisconsin? Comparison with past recall gathering campaigns

Update Below:

A look at the GAB's totals show very few invalid signatures for the Walker recall. 931,053 signatures were handed in. 900,938 were found valid (4,001 duplicates, 26,114 struck out by staff). This a 3.2% failure rate. For Kleefisch, the failure rate was 4%.

Generally, we have come to expect a 10-15% failure rate. Note that in the Gray Davis recall the failure rate was just under 18%. In other states, we've seen much larger failure rates (though it is hard to say whether the state laws prevent a full count, or every one just gives up on fighting once they hit the needed limit). Arizona Senate Majority Leader Russell Pearce recall last year may have seen a 42% failure rate. On the other hand, the Michigan State Rep Paul Scott recall had a 9.4% failure rate.

The Miami-Dade Mayoral recall, the largest recall by population of last year (they collected over 100,000 signatures), saw a 16% failure rate.

Update: Richard Winger of Ballot Access News points out in the comments below that Wisconsin law differs from other states in that it allows eligible voter in the state, not just any registered voter (as in the other states). This is clearly a critical point, but it doesn't invalidate the discussion.

Let's look at the Wisconsin senate signatures. For the Galloway petitions, there were 21,022 signatures handed in, and the GAB struck out 1,658. Galloway further challenged 863. The board did not bother looking at the challenged signatures So, the failure rate on the GAB was 7.8%. If we add in the Galloway protests, it is close to 12%. The Wanggaard petitions are a little more complex, as he challenged many more signatures -- if all of his signature challenges had been approved, it would be a early 20% failure rate. From the board's review it was less than 3%. For Moulton, the board threw out 5.7% of the signatures. His challenges would have pushed it up to about 11%. For Fitzgerald, the board tossed out 4.1%. With his challenges, it would be just under 12%

My guess would be that it is some combination of vetting by the petitioners before handing in the signatures, better training of signature gatherers and the fact that Walker did not contest the signatures. The burden shifting certainly does matter -- though in this case it was simply academic. If Walker could have gotten a high failure rate, say 20%, I think he would have contested, simply for the PR value.

As for the Mickey Mouse signature claim? Note that the elections officials claimed to have found only 5 fake names in the Walker petitions: Adolf Hitler, Mick E. Mous, Donald L. Duck, Fungky Van Den Elzen, and I Love Scott Walker Thanks. 

Michigan: Joke petitions filed against Troy rejected

The petitions were filed by Troy Mayor supporters as either a joke or to confuse voters. 10 petitions were filed, including claims that she wears red in front of a camera crew and smiles all the time. Petitions also included supportive statements about keeping the city’s library open and having perfect attendance as mayor. Earlier stories here.

Massachusetts: Westwood Town Charter proposes recall revisions

Here

California: More weird doings in Shasta Lake recall, with Councilwoman facing recall now arrested

The recall of Shasta Lake City Councilwoman Dolores Lucero took another strange turn when she was arrested for submitting documents and police reports with fabricated claims of voter fraud against recall petitioners. On Thursday, she had gone to Sacramento to lodge the complaint against Shasta County DA and the Sheriff.

Among the complaints:

Lucero is accused of talking people into signing declarations they hadn't read thoroughly that contained false information about what they supposedly witnessed when petitioners had visited them to collect signatures for their recall petitions. Deputies said they even interviewed a man who told them he was "totally blind" and incapable of reading Lucero's declaration or identifying anyone who had visited him with a recall petition.

Oregon: Lake County DA running for reelection and trying to stave off recall

Lake County District Attorney David Schutt is running for his fourth term, while trying to avoid a recall for being overly aggressive. This is the second recall attempt against Schutt in three years. The petitioner, who called Schutt "evil", said that he wants to recall him to prevent Schutt from being a judge. Note that the petitioner was convicted of a DUI in August.

In a 2010 recall campaign, petitioners submitted enough signatures, but too many were found invalid.

Wisconsin: Muskego mayor and two city councilmembers facing petitions

Muskego Mayor Kathy Chiaverotti and aldermen Neome Schaumberg and Keith Werner are facing recall threats due to their rejection of  a referendum on a proposed $3.55 million purchase of lakefront property for a park.

City officials ruled that direct legislation cannot be used to repeal an existing ordinance. The plan is currently on hold.

Note that the referendum petition had 3,409 signatures. Petitioners will need 3,004 signatures to recall the mayor, 433 for Schaumberg and 346 for Werner. They have 60 days.

Louisiana: Governor and House Speaker face recall threats for education bill

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and House Speaker Chuck Kleckley have become targets of recall efforts from a number of veteran teachers based on Jindal's proposed public education revamp, which looks "to end teacher tenure as it is currently structured and move taxpayer dollars from public education into subsidies to send children attending failed public schools to private and parochial schools."


The petitioners face an incredibly large hurdle to get on the ballot -- Louisiana has arguably the hardest recall provisions of any state: One-third of registered voters in 180 days -- that's more than was needed to get the Gray Davis one on the ballot. Same for the state legislature. Here's an article I wrote on the Louisiana law (which, bizarrely, has a by-line and picture of the op-ed editor though my byline is on bottom).

California: Two Vallejo City Councilwomen facing recall threats

Two Vallejo City Councilwomen, Stephanie Gomes and Marti Brown, are facing a threat of a recall from a two-time losing candidate (who lost to both of the councilwoman). The petitioner, Sam Kurshan, called the councilwoman anti-public safety and against new business development efforts. He needs 10 more signatures to start the process (he handed in only 10).

Petitioner would need about 8,200 signatures (15 percent of registered voters) in 160 days.

Colorado: Democrats discuss possible recall of Secretary of State

Democrats are mentioning removal possibilities against Secretary of State Scott Gessler (R), including a recall, following the defeat of a bill on mail-in ballot procedures that Gessler testified against. Gessler has been controversial ever since he sued local county clerks for mailing ballots to voters who deemed inactive-failed to vote, because they did not vote in the 2010 election.

Note that Colorado has never had a recall for a state-level official (that I know of), and that no Secretary of State has ever faced a recall.

Wisconsin: Emanuel holds fundraiser for Barrett

Is this a sign of a run? We'll see soon enough.

Signature totals announced for Gov and LG -- both well over the minimum

The totals were also announced -- there were 900,938 valid signatures on the Walker petitions, and 808,990 on the Kleefisch ones. For whatever reason, there were over 3,000 more incorrect signatures on Kleefisch's petition and 262 more duplicates. Note that these lower numbers still put both officials well over the 540,208 to get on the ballot.

Wisconsin: LaFollette attacks Falk

Here

U.S. Virgin Island Governor facing recall threats

I'm not sure what happened to this one -- doesn't seem to be any real updates since February, but the United States Virgin Islands Gov. John de Jongh (D) was being threatened with a recall from the legislature (unclear from the article how their recall law works -- sounds like a modified impeachment/recall, ala the current UK proposal).

The recall grows out of a Daily Caller investigation which uncovered allegations that de Jongh accepted cash bribes in exchange for facilitating the sale of a telecommunications company to a politically embattled U.S. telecommunications cooperative.